US says its Pacific influence is not waning
Updated
The United States has hit back at suggestions it's a waning power in the Asia Pacific in the face of China's rise.
It is one of the big questions about the region, and forms the core of the rationale for Australia's proposed military expansion. The Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, though, says the U-S is not ceding the Pacific to anyone.
Analysts say China's rise will reshape regional dynamics -- its already shaping not only Australia's but Japan's assessment of military needs. But some say India's emergence -- particularly after the recent election result -- could yet be the guarantor of Hillary Clinton's assurance.
Presenter: Linda Mottram
Speakers: Hillary Clinton, United States Secretary of State; Tobias Harris, East Asia specialist, Massachusettes Institute of Technology; John Lee, visiting fellow in foreign policy, The Centre for Independent Studies, Sydney
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MOTTRAM: In the first public observations from Washington on the backbone issue of Australia's recent defence white paper, the implications of China's rise, the secretary of state Hillary Clinton was emphatic.
CLINTON: We want Australia as well as other nations to know that the United States is not ceding the Pacific to anyone. We have long-standing, bilateral relationships with nations like Australia and others, and we have a very active multi-lateral agenda that we intend to reinvigorate.
MOTTRAM: America, Hillary Clinton says, is a trans-Pacific power, as well as a trans-Atlantic one, and she's disputed the view that China's rise inevitably erodes U-S influence.
But no less than Jonathan Pollack, professor of Asian and Pacific Studies and director of the Strategic Research department at the U-S Naval War College, commenting recently on Australia's defence white paper, says the real story line is whether in 20 years the US will have such an unquestioned authority in the Asia-Pacific region.
While Hillary Clinton gave her assurance, East Asia analyst Tobias Harris says the region's middle powers -- Australia, Japan, Korea, the ASEAN countries as a block -- face a dilemma with China, courting, even needing its economic might for their own growth but worrying about the security implications of China's rise and wanting to be prepared.
HARRIS: How much is a hedge worth? How much wealth should a country invest in something that's possible and its certainly something we should be prepared for but at the same time is it too early to say, do we know, we obviously have no idea what China will turn out to be. There's a question of at this point in time is it better to make sure that the alliance with the United States is strong and have that ready and wait more years until we have a clear sense of where China's going?
MOTTRAM: Tobias Harris says what's emerging is a competition between China and the U-S in Asia for influence over those middle powers.
HARRIS: The US needs their co-operation if its going to maintain some sort of forward presence in the region, China needs the middle powers for economic reasons and also just for them not to build up their own militaries too much and challenge China's power. So there is this sort of race, so to speak that's going on between the US and China just over how to co-operate with these countries.
MOTTRAM: But there is another element in the calculation -- India. The big electoral win in India for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is seen as a vote for continuing economic reform and openness. India has a youthful workforce to aid those processes where China's workforce is aging. Absolute povery in China is also increasing, with wealth disparities growing between country and city .. India's closing that gap with a dynamic rural sector. And India has enormous military might, with a 750-thousand strong standing army and hegemonic naval power in the Indian Ocean area, with America's blessing. Foreign policy analyst John Lee from Sydney's Centre for Independent Studies, says India has put itself on a path to become Asia's critical swing state.
LEE: The Indians want closer co-operation with the Americans. They prefer to see the Americans remain dominant in Asia as opposed to the Chinese and as long as the Americans play it subtly, I think you'll see greater and greater security co-operation betwen the Americans and the Indians.
MOTTRAM: John Lee says China will try to bring India onto its side. But traditional rivalries run deep. And where China is a distrusted rising great power, India is not, putting the odds on its side, says John Lee. The quality of Hillary Clinton's assurances then to the Asia Pacific region may well hinge on India's success.
