Democrats polling well ahead of Japan election
Updated
In Japan, a judicial panel has ruled that prosecutors should re-open a case of alleged illegal fundraising by a government minister's support group.
The ruling puts more pressure on Prime Minister Taro Aso, within a few months of a likely general election. Support for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has dropped to under 20-percent, compared with over 38-percent for the opposition Democrats.The political funding scandal also cost the previous Democratic Party leader his job, but the change in leadership restored the Democrats' poll ratings.
The Nautilus Institute's North Asia specialist Richard Tanter spoke to Sen Lam about the possibility of a change of government.
Presenter: Sen Lam
Speaker: Richard Tanter, adjunct Professor at the Nautilus Institute at RMIT University in Melbourne
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TANTER: I think that it really is a serious possibility now. That said six months ago people were saying that but they were also saying when's the scandal going to occur, meaning that in the pattern of Japanese politics in the past each time the opposition has looked like it has a resonable chance there's been a serious scandal emerging through the media, through the Prosecutor's office. And that sounds fairly cynical but there is a pattern there that has emerged and it cost not only Mr Ozawa his job but for a few months people were saying 'look there is just no possibility of the Democrat Party of Japan coming back', but they are back now.
LAM: And yet recent mayoral elections, local elections also boosted the Democrats morale. Tell us about those, how important were they?
TANTER: Well they were very important, I think morale is a terribly important factor in Japanese politics here and it links to the decision I think through the prosecutors to reopen the case of Mr Ozawa's secretary accused of corruption, I think there's a sense that well maybe change is possible and that the prosecutor's decision may be one indication that the bureaucracy, which really is the driving force in Japanese government may be beginning to consider its bets more evenly in that respect. So the government decision, the government's win in Chiba prefecture was a very important possible sign that there will be a change.
LAM: And Richard if the Democrats win the Lower House elections, which have to be held by October will it be a strong government or will they have to rely on support from smaller parties?
TANTER: They'll definitely have to rely on support from other parties, it's even conceivable they may have to rely on support from the New Komeito party, which is the current junior partner in government with the Liberal Democratic Party. So it'll be a change but how big a change we won't know. It won't be stable, there'll be a sense that well a change has begun but there's a lot more that's going to have to happen before Japanese politics gets into a more stable ongoing position.
LAM: What about Prime Minister Taro Aso, the popularity figures for him are pretty grim but is his position secure until the Lower House elections?
TANTER: By no means. I think Mr Aso is finished one way or another, he's been humiliated again and certainly within the LDP there is talk of a coup, there was a comment by a senior politician just the other day saying that whoever replaces him will get another 20 seats.
LAM: But surely they wouldn't consider a leadership change at this late stage?
TANTER: I think they may be desperate enough to consider that. They are in real trouble. Mr Hatoyama, the opposition leader is doing quite well in the media. Mr Aso looks disastrous each time that he appears. Each of his new policy moves is not working, he's under attack from within his own government, particularly important with the resignation of Mr Hatoyama the opposition leader, Kunio, his younger brother who was Mr Aso's Internal Affairs Minister until last week, he resigned or was effectively sacked but forced a big dispute with the Mr Aso over the privatisation of part of the post office system. Mr Aso has very few friends left in the LDP and they may be desperate enough, even with just three, four months to go to try another leader.
