Aus/China relations no threat to Asia Pacific Community Proposal

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MOTTRAM: Its a longer term vision of Kevin Rudd's which had a shaky start in the region, over parallels with the European Community and concern about whether there weren't already enough regional institutions. But Mr Rudd has persisted, believing no existing group either includes all the right players or is able to range across the issues that will arise in a world of shifting power balances. The Australian leader despatched respected veteran diplomat Richard Woolcott to consult across Asia, as well as with Russia and the United States and he says early scepticism has eased.

WOOLCOTT: There is I think a general agreement that there's a need for more effective arrangements to deal with important regional issues and challenges which we can expect to emerge over the next decade and there's a need to discuss that.

MOTTRAM: But while Kevin Rudd's processes are in train, there's been speculation that China may withdraw its co-operation with the initiative over the current political tensions in the Australia-China relationship. An academic conference in Sydney appears to be the latest victim of those tensions, with the influential Chinese business magazine Caijing cancelling indefinitely in what was to have been a joint event with the Sydney-based Lowy Institute for International Affairs. Richard Woolcott though doesn't believe the Asia Pacific Community is in jeopardy with China.

WOOLCOTT: My belief is that although there are now several political issues with China, this is not in the longer term going to destabilise our ongoing very important bilateral relationship with China. But the main issue is that what Mr Rudd is suggesting, in respect of a progress towards an Asia Pacific Community based on co-operation, this is a multi-lateral issue and it would of course be in China's own interests to be involved in that.

MOTTRAM: John Lee is a scholar with the Sydney-based Centre for Independent Studies who has spoken to defence and foreign policy heads throughout South East and East Asia for views on the Asia Pacific Community initiative. He agrees that China has an interest in aligning itself with the Rudd plan but says its elsewhere in the region that the plan could faulter.

LEE: I think you'll continue to see a lot of reluctance to accept this plan. There'll be a polite audience for it but I think there'll be a real reluctance to actually endorse it. The reason why I say that is because the region has very much been relying on American bilateral alliances to balance against China. Its been using a system of alliances to diplomatically and strategically encircle China, if you like. Now if you have some sort of top-down, multilateral security dialogue or institution I think there's a fear that this will dilute the role of US bilateral alliances in the region to balance against China.

MOTTRAM: John Lee says Kevin Rudd will have a hard task getting beyond the polite hearing and convincing the region that a multilateral approach to China can work as well as the successful, decades-long record of bilateral alliances with the United States.

Richard Woolcott believes though that regional sensitivities on the Rudd vision have ebbed.

WOOLCOTT: But I think as time has passed, and as a result of my consultative mission, and of course Foreign Minister Stephen Smith and Prime Minister Rudd's own discussions bilaterally with a very large number of foreign ministers and heads of government, I think its evolving in a satisfactory way. Now Rudd has always said that he's looking ahead to how the region will look in 2020, this is a sort of building block, step by step process, but my instinct is its developing well.

MOTTRAM: The next measure of how well accepted Mr Rudd's plans are will come at the East Asia Summit in October and APEC in November, as the Australian leader tries to convene a high level meeting by year's end to advance his idea.