Talk of an early election for Australia
Updated
The spectre of a two-billion dollar hole in the Australian budget has sparked new talk in Canberra of an early national election.
Presenter: Linda Mottram
Speakers: Nicola Roxon, Australian Health Minister; Dr Norman Abjorensen, Political Scientist, Australian National University; Craig Thomson, Australian Labor Party MP
Australia
- Listen:
- Windows Media
MOTTRAM: Australia's almost two years into its three year election cycle. But its never too late to threaten an early poll. Previous threats have so far been averted. Now the government is determined to legislate its promise to take subsidies away from high income earners for health insurance, though the upper house, the Senate, last week rejected the move. Health minister Nicola Roxon says her main interest is in good policy and budget practice.
ROXON: Its nearly two Billion dollars over the next four years when we're trying to invest in a lot of new health reforms. We've made it quite clear that that doesn't come for free. When we've got the global financial circumstances as we do, we can't pretend that that's not important.
MOTTRAM: In the interests of advancing that cause then, the minister has confirmed the government's taking advice on a possible recall of the national Parliament in December to have the health bill voted on again. Rejection a second time would give the government a technical trigger, a reason to dissolve both houses of Parliament and to call an early election.
Convincing enough non-government Senators to support an extended sitting could be difficult. And Doctor Norman Abjorensen an expert on Australian politics from the Australian National University, says the threat is probably more a political tactic by the government.
ABJORENSEN: Its a way of putting pressure on the opposition, on the non-government Senators, its a very common tool used by governments that don't control the upper house to try and get their legislation through so there's an element of game playing in it.
MOTTRAM: Yes indeed we've seen several pieces of legislation which have come to a similar point to this haven't we?
ABJORENSEN: Yes this latest one over health insurance, health care reforms isn't the only one. It's something that an opposition needs to be mindful of because the whole idea of the mechanism of the double dissolution is a means built into the constitution to try and resolve a deadlock between the lower house and the upper house. And the ultimate tool that a government does hold is the double dissolution of both houses of which we've only had six since Federation in 1901. So its not a common event but its there always as a constant tool in the armory of the government of the day.
MOTTRAM: Health minister Nicola Roxon agrees saying the government is not looking for an early election and that this is part of doing business with a Senate where the government does not have a majority of members. That's why the health changes were rejected in the Senate.
Labor M-P Craig Thomson also says its a climate where talk of early elections can be useful.
THOMSON: Unless we have this threat of returning Parliament, nothing happens. Its only when we've made these threats that we've been able to get legislation through and that's the same situation with the private health insurance.
MOTTRAM: But Doctor Norman Abjorensen cautions that the politics of early election threats are not necessarily simple.
ABJORENSEN: The government does hold a few trump cards at the moment. One of them is a very significant lead over the opposition so the opposition wouldn't be in a hurry to go to an election. It would be certainly hoping that it could pick up its popularity by the time the next election comes around.
MOTTRAM: A double dissolution election would also allow the government to have the whole of the Senate re-elected under relatively favourable circumstances to it. Normal elections only re-elect half the Senate and its the Senate that's the source of the government's legislative troubles, as its been for so many governments before this one.
So while the Australian election cycle is close to running its normal course anyway, circumstances may yet conspire to see the government armed and willing to dissolve both houses and go to the people somewhat early.
