Japan's new PM unsettles Washington
Updated
Japan's new prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama has some work to do to reassure Washington that there'll be a smooth transition in its relationship with his Democratic Party government. A week after taking office, Mr Hatoyama's been making his diplomatic debut at the UN. And meeting President Obama on the General Assembly sidelines, Japan's new PM says the DPJ will continue to put relations with the US at the very heart of Tokyo's security policy. But while speaking in broad terms about offering to help the US in Afghanistan, Mr Hatoyama was vague on the specifics; crucially, stopping short of offering to extend Tokyo's refuelling missions in the Indian Ocean, which expire in January.
Presenter: Corinne Podger
Speaker: Professor Ellis Krauss, Japanese politics and policymaking, University of California in San Diego
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KRAUSS: It does at least say the right things to reassure Washington. The real crunch will come in how he deals with ending the refueling of American ships in the Indian Ocean for the Afghanistan war, and how he deals with the movement of the American base to the northern part of Okinawa.
PODGER: If we could stay with the refueling mission, he's under pressure Mr Hatoyama, from Pakistan on the sidelines of the UN meeting in New York to extend the refueling mission after it's due to expire in January. Is that likely to happen?
KRAUSS: I don't think he can. The DPJ, his party, they've been, in opposition for the last year or so, have been pushing the ending of that mission. And ever since he became Prime Minister has clearly stated they will not continue it. If he goes back on this now he will be seen as bowing to American and foreign pressure, and I think it could help undermine his party's commitment to fulfilling their campaign promises, which is something the DPJ is very, very committed to. He made promises in his manifesto, we're going to fulfill them. I mean the DPJ is the party that introduced manifestos to Japan in 2003, and they believe like in a Westminster system, which is what they're trying to impose on Japan now, that you fulfill those promises.
PODGER: He has been talking in fairly nebulous terms about ways of assisting with Afghanistan though. What might Japan substantively offer Washington?
KRAUSS: Very likely of course it will be non-combat because of Japan's peace constitution, probably developmental assistance; schools, roads, that kind of thing, and civilian benefit projects rather than any real military role. He will definitely I think, he will definitely not send self-defence forces to Afghanistan in any combat role. No Japanese prime minister has ever done that. Even Koizumi sent the self-defence forces non-combat roles, and as you know they had to be protected by Australian troops at one point. So I mean I doubt very much that they're going to send any self-defence forces, it will probably be developmental assistance.
PODGER: How is this going to be received in Washington then, given the calls that we are seeing for extra troops being the key need in Afghanistan from the United States at the moment?
KRAUSS: Well I mean they're not going to be happy about it but I very, very much doubt that they're going to make a public issue of it. The United States is under constraints too and between a rock and a hard place as well as the Japanese government now. The Japanese government needs to reassure Washington even if at the same time it needs to fulfill its domestic constituency and coalition partner's demands. But the United States has its own problems, and it does not want to be seen as undermining Hatoyama when he's so popular at home at the moment, and also the United States needs to tell the Japanese this is a relationship between countries, it is not a relationship between us and the former ruling Liberal Democratic Party. So the United States needs to be careful as well that it demonstrates it's willing to work with the Hatoyama government and not make a big deal out of this issue. It will demand in private some sort of trade-off for helping Afghanistan though, I'm almost sure about that.
PODGER: In the public arena perhaps are there ways in which the two countries could be more demonstratively side by side when they go to the G20 financial summit later this week in Pittsburgh?
KRAUSS: They could, it depends on really the United States on that point. I think Japan is perfectly happy to, I think especially the DPJ government will be much more willing than the former government to impose more international regulations; national and international regulations. The problem now is whether the United States will. I don't think Japan will go as far as perhaps the Sarkozy desire for regulation, but I think they'd be willing to go further than the United States. The question is how far the United States is going to go. Obama has not yet shown himself willing to impose salary caps on executives etc. I don't know if the Japanese would be willing to do that either. But I think they would be willing to have more regulations than the Americans at this point.
PODGER: Japan is obviously battling through one of its worst ever recessions. What will Mr Hatoyama need to get from the G20 to take back to Japan?
KRAUSS: He is in a difficult position, there are many, many issues, I mean he is walking a real mine field. He's promised lots of expensive programs to individuals, such as more money to mothers for child rearing, and at the same time he has to find the money when Japan has the largest debt in the industrialised world. And he cannot just keep printing money. He's trying to do that by cutting out very high profile projects of the former government that were pork barrel spending. Huge dam projects he suspended already despite protests from construction companies, governors and many others in the region where the dam was going to be built. And clearly that they're trying to squeeze money out from this kind of pork barrel spending to pay for their pet projects that they promised to do. I'm not sure that there's much the G20 can give him in this respect. Possibly, possibly less of the Japanese currency exchange could be weakened, it's currently something like 90-92 to the dollar, and that could be something that could stimulate exports for Japan is the yen became cheaper. But I'm not sure that there's much that the G20 is going to do in that regard. I think they're probably going to be asking Mr Hatoyama what can you do for us more than he's going to be asking them what can you do for me.
