Afghan forces 'won't be ready' for US withdrawal in 2011
Updated
Political and military observers have been responding to US President Barack Obama's decision to send 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan. Taliban leaders have warned Washington all it can expect from sending more troops is more casualties. While the new commitment is 10,000 short of what Mr Obama's top military chief General Stanley McChrystal wanted, he says it'll be enough to turn the tide against the militants.
But analysts in Washington and Kabul say Mr Obama should not have set a mid-2011 timetable to begin withdrawing US soldiers and handing control to domestic forces.
Presenter: Corinne Podger
Speaker: Nader Nadery, spokesman, Afghan Independent Human Rights Commision, Kabul
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NADERY: President Obama's decision and in essence of his review of strategies yesterday gave him some indication of a lot of commitments to Afghanistan and has created a level of optimism among the population. But at the same time, his announcements of an exit date or starting to withdraw in 18 months are raising questions also and keeping the level of anxiety among the population.
PODGER: Indeed, it has been suggested that a specific timeframe might actually work in favour of the Taliban, that they could just stand back and wait until the Americans start leaving in a year-and-a-half. Is that a possibility?
NADERY: Well, certainly the Taliban would try to convince some people, telling them that the Americans are leaving in 18 months and they will try to carry on fighting and continue to keep themselves and their resources until 18 months and then they can engage in heavier fighting or taking back over the country. It certainly plays in their favour a specific date of withdrawal. But there are some other issues if those are taken into consideration, then it is going to be okay. First and foremost is to what level the operation against the Taliban is going to be carried out and how hard they will be hit both here in Afghanistan, and how much of a loyal partner Pakistan is to really help eradicating Taliban headquarters and centres in Baluchistan and in Northwest Frontier of Pakistan.
In addition to that, it depends how much the government of Afghanistan would be able to bring some level of strength and bring some reforms and build back the confidence of the population in its institutions and its performance. And if that happens, the reason for people to be reluctant about supporting the government forces or waiting for the Taliban, because there is a possibility of them returning back in 18 months, would be very low. But it is quite a dangerous issue to announce the withdrawal date and it would give elements within the Pakistani government and intelligence to keep their links with the Taliban, because they know in 18 months that the Taliban can be supported to take back the country.
PODGER: Washington is resting a lot of its hopes on the Afghan National Army. It's around 90,000 soldiers whose main role, as I understand it is in Kabul, where they have got the backing of thousands of Western troops. What needs to be done to bring them up to a combat ready status by mid 2011?
NADERY: Well, at this stage, one of the very few institutions that Afghanistan have some level of credibility and people do have some level of confidence in, is the Afghan National Army. But the numbers are low, one, and second, they are not equipped well. We are concerned given that the Afghan National Army holds a level of confidence that if the post of recruitment in the national army is not going to be as rigorous, or subject to a very rigorous vetting process as it is now, then it may undermine its quality and credibility.
On the other hand, they are not equipped at the same level as a national army should be in the classic definition of the term. They don't have heavy weaponry, they are only equipped with light weapons. What is needed for them to achieve combat ability is increasing the number, but keeping in mind the quality of strength, and also providing them with more equipment and further resources.
PODGER: Just finally Nader, Mr Obama's 18 month timeframe also establishes if you like perimeters for President Karzai to establish his credibility as leader. Now he has struggled to do that in the eight years since the conflict started. Will Washington's new strategy help him achieve it now?
NADERY: Well, we are glad that there is a realisation of enforcements of good rule of law and that sanctioning government of the international community of at least eight years. There is a good level of pressure on President Karzai and we do hope that these pressures are put in the right way and it is carried out in the way to pursue President Karzai to cooperate and to act upon them. If this continues to come from the population and the international community, then there is a hope that things would change and there will be some reforms. But the time line, the one and a half year I don't think is a sufficient time and President Karzai has been slow in bringing in reforms and changing course. There is lack of human resources, there is not sufficient appropriate leadership and the government is so weak and there is less political willingness of the government to actually bring changes and then doubtful if the changes that are set to achieve the objectives in 18 months would be really coming in reality.
