Democrats leader a frontman for Thai barons: Analyst
Updated
Democrats leader Abhisit Vejjajiva may be certain to form government but there's no guarantee that will end the political instability in Thailand.
Intense pressure will be applied by the People's Alliance for Democracy, the pro Thaksin movement and the deteriorating Thai economy.
Presenter: Sen Lam
Speaker: Michael Montesano, visiting research fellow, the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore
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MONTESANO: Well there not very certain and this is going to come down to the wire, but it does seem as though the Democrats will be able to get this coalition elected in today's parliamentary session.
LAM: What are the prospects of a successful government by the Democrats given the complex coalition that will need to be held together, not to mention the anger of the Thaksin supporters?
MONTESANO: The prospects are very low, coalition management as you say is going to be very difficult not least because many coalition partners will be in the coalition in order to profit personally and not for the good of the ministry that they run. In addition there'll be intense pressure from three outside sources; the Yellow Shirts of the PAD, the Red Shirts of the pro-Thaksin movement, and the economy, which is going to be in very, very bad shape. One thing we need to be clear about is that we shouldn't talk about Abhisit at all, he's not a factor in any of this. He's a front man for the barons within his own party and within his coalition parties who have worked with the military to structure this government. Abhisit is an irrelevancy who is fronting and will have the title of prime minister, but really shouldn't be seen as a factor here. The party barons, the royal muck work that has been represented in this case by the military are really the architects of this government, and this is a test to whether they can manage Thai politics in the way that they managed Thai politics in the 1980s and 1990s.
LAM: Indeed as you say Abhisit is like the Somchai if you like, and many people do come in with a lot of personal agenda. Do you think the Democrats if they do get to form government that they might owe some kind of debt to the PAD?
MONTESANO: First of all calling Abhisit the new Somchai is an insult to Sochai. Somchai is a much more experienced player and a much more experienced man than Abhisit is. Second, the Democrats certainly do have a debt to the PAD but dealing with the PAD is not a process of indebtedness that can be talked about or reckoned rationally. The PAD has a series of demands, when its demands are not lived up to it resorts to extra-legal measures that the network has been demonstrated to be uninterested in controlling or limiting. So this is going to be a source of real trouble for Abhisit. But again, we have discontent among Thaksin supporters and we have most importantly an economic crisis that can really threaten stability, security, confidence among the Thai electorate.
LAM: And Michael Montesano last week the Democrats deputy leader Kraisak Choonhavan told this program that the idea of a divide between rural and urban Thailand was only a reality in the western media. What's your view?
MONTESANO: Well Kraisak has a point in that there are certainly Thaksin supporters in Bangkok in the hundreds of thousands and there are people who vote for the Democrats in the provinces. The fact of the matter however is that every time you have an election Thaksin supporters do well in the north and the north east, and the Democrats elsewhere. So in electoral terms there's a clear divide and Kraisak has no leg to stand on when he makes his case if he's talking about electoral processes. The other factor is that since 1997 the pattern of economic growth in Thailand has really disadvantaged people in rural areas of Thailand, and the Democrat Party has failed continually to articulate policies that take seriously this growing economic divide. And until the Democrat Party realises that you can't rely on some soldiers to broker a way for you to get into power, and you really need to win elections that gets you into power, the Democrat Party is doomed to be an irrelevancy.
