China announces big defence spending increase
Updated
China this week signalled a massive boost to defence spending, citing security challenges from domestic separatist groups and nations wishing to curb its world influence. China's 2009 defence budget has not been released, but last year, it set aside 61-billion dollars for defence spending, up 17-and-a-half percent.
In its policy paper, Beijing said the Chinese armed forces are being modernised, citing potential threat from pro-independence forces in Taiwan, Tibet and the resource-rich western region of Xingjiang.
Presenter: Sen Lam
Speakers: Professor Richard Tanter at the Nautilus Institute, RMIT University in Melbourne
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TANTER: I think that the Chinese government has responded to long-term American and Japanese pressure for more transparency with a brilliant glitzy PR operation, which brings some elements of transparency, we now know a little more about the official version of the budget, but not much more with a chance to explain to the world that China is on a peaceful path to expansion as far as it's concerned.
LAM: And of course recently it sent its naval ships to the Somalian coast to protect vessels against Somalian pirates. Was that an example of its peaceful use of its military?
TANTER: Well it's certainly making the case for its actions as a good international citizen and Australia is considering something similar, as is Japan. The other side of the coin of course is that China has a major and somewhat brutal real politic approach to that part of the world with its support for regime in Sudan from which it imports a great deal of oil. So it's a mixed blessing in that sense.
LAM: So it's not entirely altruistic but by the very nature of China's economic growth though do you think that in itself might challenge US supremacy and indeed challenge its strategic considerations?
TANTER: I think if you like there are two myths abroad about China and its military power. One if you like from the more hawkish elements of the Pentagon suggest that Chinese economic rise must inevitably lead to conflict if not war with the established powers and the United States. The other is that the Hu Jintao regime is the inheritor of revolutionary China and therefore is inherently on the side of the angels. I think in fact both myths imprison us a lot and China is certainly not the aggressive in the sense of that Pentagon image from years ago, but it's equally it's quite very direct in pursuing Chinese national interest, and particularly in a fairly brutal way against those that it sees as threatening to Chinese interests, in this case the image in Xinjiang, Tibet and Taiwan.
LAM: And China's defence budget of course has been rising in recent years. Last year saw a 17 per cent increase as compared to seven per cent in the US. But is China merely playing catch-up do you think?
TANTER: Well of course, the American military budget is ten times that of the Chinese official budget. It's very hard to know exactly how big China's military budget is, it's been suggested even the Central Committee doesn't really know the answer. Most estimates put it about three times that quoted figure. It has been rising very rapidly, that's unlikely to continue as the global economic crisis ripples through the Chinese budget. It will slow down. But equally a lot of that is certainly military catch-up and in terms of forced modernisation, but some of it is if you like domestic real politic, raising salaries for Chinese soldiers, increasing their benefits in terms of compensating for food rises and so on. So again it's a mixed story, but like many other countries China is still not very transparent about its military spending.
LAM: And Richard if you could just turn very quickly to China's neighbour Japan, what do you think Japan might expect of a democratic Obama administration in Washington?
TANTER: Mr Aso has said that he hopes that this will result in an even closer alliance with the United States. That in itself is difficult to imagine because Japan is so much closer, has been very close to the United States under the Bush administration. I suspect the Obama administration might in fact be a little more distanced, more balanced, waiting to see the result of the Japanese general election before September this year, which may well bring in a non-LDP administration. And equally over North Korea, while North Korea may not be the highest priority for the Obama administration, they're very unlikely to accept the Japanese request to lock in with Japan over the issue of abduction being central to those negotiations.
LAM: And do you think Japan might be expected by the US to contribute more by way of non-combat support in this trans-Pacific alliance?
TANTER: I think that all NATO countries and countries in the so-called global NATO partnership like Australia and Japan will be under pressure to contribute more in Afghanistan, whether that's going to be possible is another matter in Japan politically.
