Tamil Tigers likely to go underground
Updated
Sri Lanka's army is reported to be pushing deep into the last tracts of jungle still held by Tamil Tiger rebels.
This follows the capture of the rebels' last urban stronghold and military headquarters. Sri Lanka's army chief says soldiers have taken the north-eastern coastal town of Mullaittivu, which served as the Tigers' main base for ten years. Army chief Lieutenant-General Sarath Fonseka says the Tamil rebels are now completely cornered. Meanwhile, UN agencies say at least 30 civilians have been killed by artillery fire.
Presenter: Sen Lam
Speaker: Christopher Snedden, senior lecturer at Deakin University in Melbourne
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SNEDDEN: Well they're saying that it's a temporary setback, that this is part of the ongoing insurgency that they're mounting, you win some, you lose some. They will now probably go back to the jungles and also engage in suicide bombing, which of course the LTTE pioneered and is the expert in.
LAM: So do you think the rebels are likely to go underground and perhaps carry out hit and run attacks in urban centres?
SNEDDEN: Yes I think that's likely. It's also going to be very difficult for the Sri Lankan security forces to totally clear them from the north east, which is a very jungly area and very difficult terrain in which to fight a war. So they will mount attacks wherever they can and they will include suicide attacks I would think.
LAM: Just how did the Tamil Tigers get to this low point?
SNEDDEN: Well I think there are at least three reasons; first they were outlawed as a terrorist organisation after 9/11, which has made it difficult for them to get money and secondly to procure arms and ammunition. The second point is that the Sri Lankan government has since mid-2006 when the Tamils attacked an important water storage container in the east, since then the government has had a very focused policy to try and obliterate them militarily. And the government comprises the Prime Minister, who is the Minister for Defence as well and his brother who's the Secretary of that department, and also ex-Sri Lankan security forces, and Lieutenant-General Fonseca who's also been fighting them, he and the Secretary of the department for many, many years. So they've had a very focused campaign. They've also changed their method of operation from large battalion type operations to smaller, three, four, five, ten-man operations to try and counter the way the Tamils operate. And I think the third factor is that the LTTE themselves have been disjointed and have had political problems. People have become disenchanted with (Tamil Tiger leader) Prabhakaran's dictatorial way of operation. And in 2004 a major commander in the east actually said I've had enough and he left, and that's also caused a weakening of the LTTE.
LAM: Indeed, we've also had reports of their leaders fleeing the island. What can you tell us about that?
SNEDDEN: Well there is a suggestion that Prabhakaran may have left but the latest news that I've seen this morning is that they're denying that the LTTE, and they're saying that that is malicious propaganda. That said it does appear as though the Sri Lankan Security Forces have found Prabhakaran's headquarters, so we don't exactly know where he is. But if he does what he tells his troops to do he will not be captured, he will take his cyanide pill and commit suicide. Otherwise, he will also retreat into the jungle.
LAM: And we've also received, I've seen reports of the rebels being told to prepare to swallow their cyanide capsules. So morale must be very low on the ground?
SNEDDEN: Yes it's hard to actually work out because most of the reports, in fact almost all of them are from government sources. So we don't really know the state of the opposition. But certainly they are very much on the back foot, they would be preparing to take their cyanide pills if they do get captured. But equally, it's difficult to know who the terrorists are once they take their uniform off up there. So it maybe tricky from that point of view as well.
