Tough year predicted for Afghanistan

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MICHAEL ROWLAND: Indeed. It was a very sombre media conference the general has just given here in Washington at the Pentagon.

He essentially said Tony that there was a military stalemate in the south of Afghanistan. That of course is where Australian troops are based.

He also said coalition forces were looking down the barrel of increased insurgent attacks as the weather warms up towards the middle of the year in the northern summer. And certainly ahead of the presidential elections in Afghanistan in August, David McKiernan made it very clear that the level of violence in Afghanistan was definitely increasing.

DAVID MCKIERNAN: Even with these additional forces I have to tell you that 2009 is going to be a tough year. There are the baseline problems of poverty and literacy and violence that have occurred over the last three decades in that country so that's not going to turn around quickly. But we do see with these additional forces an opportunity to break this stalemate, at least in terms of security conditions in the south.

TONY EASTLEY: US General McKiernan speaking there.

Michael Rowland, so is it a case that the general considers it absolutely essential that further reinforcements come from other countries as well?

MICHAEL ROWLAND: Yes, he's underscored that point. He's made particular reference to the need for a greater military push in the south of the country. He didn't say that, well by definition that would mean an increased contribution from countries like Australia that are based down there.

But he did make it clear that more coalition troops, be they from Australia, be they from America's NATO allies in Europe, would be needed to face this increasing level of violence.

He made the point in this Pentagon media conference Tony that the US couldn't win the war by itself.

DAVID MCKIERNAN: We need to continue this to be an international effort. So there are NATO contributions and other troop contributing nations so it's not just US military capabilities, it's international military capabilities, while we are growing the Afghan army and the Afghan police.

Because what we want to get to is what I've called the tipping point where the lead for security is in Afghan units, police and army, and we increasingly are more of in a training and mentoring role.

TONY EASTLEY: And that's the general again.

Michael Rowland, I guess it's fair to say that the general's views are echoed, reflected entirely by those of President Barack Obama?

MICHAEL ROWLAND: Indeed. The commander in chief certainly believes that there's going to have to be an increased international effort in Afghanistan.

He referred to that point as he made the announcement yesterday that those 17,000 additional American troops would be heading to Afghanistan by the middle of the year.

Now he's yet to approach leaders like Kevin Rudd to actually ask for these extra troops but he is again making the point today that winning the war in Afghanistan, the point echoed by his top US general over there, is certainly going to have to be a joint effort.

BARACK OBAMA: Obviously I'm going to be continuing to ask other countries to help think through how do we approach this very difficult problem.

MICHAEL ROWLAND: The extra 17,000 American troops will take total US troop numbers in Afghanistan to 55,000. America's allies, including Australia, have 30,000 troops on the ground.

Gary Schmitt, a military expert at the conservative Washington think tank, the American Enterprise Institute, says Mr Obama may struggle to get other countries to follow America's lead.

GARY SCHMITT: You're not going to get from those nations substantial more forces. The Brits in particular, as much as we're stretched there, they're in even more perilous condition in terms of manpower and resources than the US military.

MICHAEL ROWLAND: Britain is pointing out its 9,000 troops represent about 12 per cent of the total allied force. The Prime Minister Gordon Brown says he has no plans to send any more soldiers.

GORDON BROWN: We've already put more help into Afghanistan in the last few months and we await a conclusion between us and our other allies.

MICHAEL ROWLAND: Military historian Frederick Kagan, one of the architects of the US troop surge in Iraq says all nations involved in Afghanistan must realise a much greater commitment will be needed.

FREDERICK KAGAN: If you think that success of any kind in Afghanistan requires establishing some kind of stable, survivable Afghan state, then you have to advocate for a pretty significant counter-insurgency campaign which is going to be fairly troop intensive, generate casualties, cost a lot of money and probably last a long time.

MICHAEL ROWLAND: Lieutenant General David Barno, a former commander of US forces in Afghanistan, says the extra 17,000 American troops is only the start.

DAVID BARNO: Without giving you a numbers answer, I think the American number that's going in here this year is probably the beginning of a somewhat larger number.

MICHAEL ROWLAND: But military expert Gary Schmitt says many of the other countries with troops on the ground don't share America's strategic goals.

GARY SCHMITT: Most of our allies there are there because they think this is a good thing to do for the alliance.

MICHAEL ROWLAND: The US-Australia alliance is about to be tested with Barack Obama poised to ask for more Australian troops.

Any request is likely before the President and the Prime Minister Kevin Rudd attend a NATO summit in France in early April.