Terrorism 'first order issue' for Australia: security analyst
Updated
An Australian security expert says terrorism should be a first order issue for Australia, as the Rudd government works to finish a new defence policy paper.
Professor Alan Dupont says that includes the prospect of a terrorist attack on an Australian city and a North Korean missile that reaches almost to northern Australia. Professor Dupont also names nuclear proliferation as a concern, a view echoed by the eminent British strategic expert, Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, who is visiting Australia in part to advise on new efforts at nuclear arms control and disarmament.
Presenter: Linda Mottram
Speakers: Sir Lawrence Freedman, Professor of War Studies, Kings College, London; Professor Alan Dupont, Michael Hintze Chair of International Security, University of Sydney
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MOTTRAM: Observers are expecting North Korea to test a ballistic missile within days or weeks, under the guise of a communications satellite .. a reminder of the dangerous standoff on the Korean peninsula, particularly with a new president in the White House to impress. Sir Lawrence Freedman is Professor of War Studies at Kings College, London and he's in Australia as a guest of the Lowy Institute for International Policy.
FREEDMAN: I think it is attention grabbing. And my view of North Korea is that it will continue to procrastinate, it will string everybody along, it wants to get concessions and use its nuclear program for that but it will be very nervous about abandoning the whole program because then its got nothing.
MOTTRAM: And so we end up with this continuing tension on the Korean peninsula.
FREEDMAN: Yes and its very dangerous.
MOTTRAM: And its one of the dangers that Australian strategic expert, Professor Alan Dupont says should be playing heavily on the minds of the country's defence and political leaders, as they shape a long-awaited defence White Paper, now likely to be published in April.
Speaking to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra, Professor Dupont gave his assessment of what the paper could and should say, particularly in light of recent dramatic global changes.
He told his audience there are four elements to the threat environment that need to be considered.
DUPONT: I actually believe that terrorism is a first order strategic issue for Australia.
Many disagree, but Professor Dupont argues for a broader understanding of how terrorism is evolving .. with proxy organisations run by nation states, major non-state actors that are acquiring military capabilities like those of nation states and the possibility of terrorist groups acquiring nuclear weapons.
DUPONT: And its going to engage the Australian Defence Force sometimes in a supporting role but often in terms of first responses. That's everything from what happens here in the homeland, a terrorist attack into Sydney or Melbourne or a big city in Australia, right through to the way in which terrorism is morphing into a major insurgency challenges to Australian interests around the world and Afghanistan is a classic example of that.
MOTTRAM: A second set of issues Professor Dupont says is the threat of a conventional military attack, particularly given the growth of capabilities across North Asia and the likely evolution of India as a maritime power.
Then there are nuclear weapons, where sheltering under the US nuclear umbrella by way of Australia's alliance with the US doesn't answer all the quetsions.
DUPONT: We have to think much more clearly about theatre missile defence because these are technologies as we saw in Europe during the 80s and 90s that can also be used in a tactical sense.
MOTTRAM: Former Australian Foreign minister Gareth Evans, who now works on the joint Australia-Japan arms control and disarmament initiative, also spelled out the concerns at a Parliamentary committee in Canberra.
EVANS: As a result of the explosion of information available on the internet, the black market activity of AQ Khan, just the sheer access that already exists to a considerable amount of poorly secured fissile material and indeed actual portable scale weapons.
MOTTRAM: And the nuclear energy industry is likely to expand in response to climate change issues, an additional factor.
Beyond this, Professor Dupont also sees a range of resource and environmental issues that could be destabilising, with direct implications for the Australian Defence Force.
He says the days of Australia focussing only on its own region in defence terms are over while Australia's force structure he says must evolve to better cope with not just conventional high end operations, but also stabilisation operations, humanitarian work .. and anywhere in the world.
What is evident from his assessment is the complex and interconnected nature of the strategic environment.
Professor Freedman agrees and says shaping policy in the situation requires subtlety and nuance -- which goes for Australia's defence posture, as much as for much bigger players like the US.
FREEDMAN: So for example, you want to put pressure on Iran, you've got to develop your relationship with Russia, now some indications again that there's interesting things going on but there's deal upon deal upon deal upon deal with lots of different countries and to keep a track of it all and to stop getting into a situation where one little problem in one place unravels the whole thing will be quite a trick.
