Hopes China will intervene in Fiji instability
Updated
According to at least one commentator, the Pacific island of Fiji could become another Burma, with grave consequences for both its citizens and the region's security.
Australia is talking of a strong reaction to last week's escalation of the coup leaders' hold on the judiciary and the media, including possible sanctions and tough diplomatic measures.
China is also a key relationship for Fiji and so far has made little comment. Beijing prefers to keep its own reaction low-key, but even so, Australia will want to make sure they are involved in discussions as events unfold.
Presenter: Matthew Abud
Speaker: Simon Crean, Australia's Trade Minister; Jenny Heywood-Jones, program director for the Sidney Myer Melanesia project at the Lowy Institute
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MATTHEW ABUD: The possibility that Fiji could spiral into instability and unrest is one which regional decision-makers may be forced to confront. Trade Minister Simon Crean has already raised the possibility of economic sanctions against the regime of [Commodore Frank] Bainimarama - but the minister knows that the island's economy is already under serious stress.
SIMON CREAN: This will not help the economy of Fiji. It has been suffering since the military took over a couple of years ago.
ABUD: Fiji also faces possible suspension from the Pacific Forum, and the Commonwealth. Its leaders seem willing to risk it all - but they will need some kind of help to survive.
China has become one of Fiji's major aid providers. Jenny Heywood-Jones from the Lowy Institute says Beijing would prefer to stand back from events in Suva.
HEYWOOD-JONES: China is the one country that really hasn't commented or sought to engage in active criticism of the interim government since the coup in 2006 and it has been willing to provide loans and support infrastructure projects. I think Australia will be seeking to engage China in the situation in Fiji - where it hasn't got many friends and China is one country it regards as a friend. Getting China on side will be important, but difficult as we've seen in the past.
ABUD: Heywood-Jones says that in the end, China also needs Fiji to be stable. But the events in Suva could get much worse - which will be a challenge for all countries with links to the region.
HEYWOOD-JONES: The level of anger in Fiji society has been rising. I think as the economic situation starts to bite, as people lose their jobs as they will, as they stop affording being able to put food on the table and pay for the health and education of their families, I think there's going to be an increasing sense of frustration which might result, if not in civil unrest, certainly, possibly more crime and other law and order problems which will require a response.
