Asia rise must drive Australian arms spend: White
Updated
A new paper released by Australian think-tank the Lowy Institute says Australia's defence needs must be assessed in the light of China's rise and what it calls 'The Asian Century'.
A US defence report last month warned that China is seeking technology and weapons to disrupt the traditional advantages of American forces. The Pentagon report said that secrecy surrounding China's military creates the potential for miscalculation on both sides.
The paper was written by Hugh White, a former deputy defence secretary and now visiting fellow at the Lowy Institute.
Presenter: Sen Lam
Speaker: Hugh White, former deputy defence secretary and professor of Strategic Studies at Australian National University
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PROFESSOR WHITE: Well, I think Australians do generally have a very positive view of China and China's developments and I think that's for very good reasons. I think China's economic growth has obviously been immensely beneficial for very many people in China and it's been very beneficial for Australia so I think, you know, there's every reason for Australians to be positive about that.
On the other hand I do think there's some very significant implications for China's rise for the way in which Asia works and my own view is that, as China grows, the kind of structures which have kept Asia so peaceful for the last few decades will start to come under pressure and in those circumstances Australia's defence needs probably need to adapt.
SEN LAM: But what do you make of the view that the rise of China militarily and also the so-called Asian Century is not necessarily a bad thing, it's really more about how the US and indeed Australia respond to that?
PROFESSOR WHITE: I think China's rise in general, I think, is undoubtedly a good thing. I think there's no doubt that not just the people of China but people throughout Asia and around the world can benefit from the emergence in China of a big modern effective economy and so think that's all very positive. I think the risks are that as China's power grows the kinds of structures which have kept Asia peaceful, particularly American primacy, comes under challenge and as you, I think, quite correctly say, the question is not just does China's power increase and what does China want to do with it but how do other countries respond.
And I think in particular the important questions are how the US and Japan respond to China's rise. Those are the big players, they are the major powers in Asia. They're the ones whose relationships are fundamental to the peace and stability of the whole region and one of the reasons why I don't believe in what we might call a China threat hypothesis is I don't think the question is just what China does, it's how the region as a whole and particularly those major powers respond that's really critical.
SEN LAM: And so what should we be looking at here in Australia when we rethink our security strategy in the light of this impending shifting global balance of power?
PROFESSOR WHITE: Well, I think there's two really important issues for Australia. The first is diplomatic. That is we in Australia need to look at what we can do to help the emergence in Asia of a new international order which accommodates China's growing power and preserves the peace that we've enjoyed for the last few decades. I think that's a really important issue, it's critical for Australia, it's critical for the whole region. I think in some ways the Asia Pacific community concept that Kevin Rudd articulated last year was a first rather faltering step towards that kind of diplomatic initiative by Australia but I think there's a lot more to be done and I think most of that needs to be done bilaterally.
Secondly I think we do have to ask ourselves in Australia what this means for our role in the region and particularly our military posture. Australia has always enjoyed the luxury, if you like, of having as a very close ally the dominant maritime power in the region - since the Second World War, that's been the United States. But it may well be that 20 or 30 years from now, which is not a long time in defence planning terms, the United States may not be anything like as dominant in Asia as it has been for the last few decades and in that different kind of Asia, in that Asian century, Australia will have to, I think, rethink its defence posture and possibly increase it military capabilities.
SEN LAM: You're listening to Connect Asia on Radio Australia and our guest this morning is defence specialist Professor Hugh White. Hugh White, does Australia's defence spending have to be more focused, do you think, to get more value for our money, if you like?
PROFESSOR WHITE: Absolutely and I think there's a couple of elements to that. The first is that obviously from many of the stories we've seen both in the last few weeks and months but also going back several years the defence organisation itself is not very efficient, it doesn't deliver capability very effectively, so I think there's a big reform agenda required in defence in that way.
But I also think there's a deeper question, that is we need to be very careful, very deliberate, very focused in deciding what exactly it is we're going to want armed forces to be able to do, what kind of forces can best do those things and make much more stringent decisions about where we spend our money. I think in the last few years in particular the Howard Government in its last couple of terms made a number of investments which don't really fit Australia's strategic needs and you can waste a great deal of money buying things you don't need.
SEN LAM: So in your view is there a specific arm of Australia's defence force that should be built up?
PROFESSOR WHITE: I think that the core to Australia maintaining substantial strategic weight in Asia over the next few decades is going to be the focus on our capacity for what I call maritime denial, that is the capacity to deny potential adversaries passage through our air and maritime approaches and to do that I would focus most effort on building up our submarine forces and our combat aircraft capability.
SEN LAM: So why is it important to have a strong blue water force in relation to say China's rise, for instance?
PROFESSOR WHITE: It's very important to say that I don't think that it's China's rise specifically which poses threat to Australia. Some of the discussion about this issue suggests that Australia's strategic risks rise because China's military capability is growing and that capability might be used to attack us. I don't think that's really what's at stake here.
What's much more important is the way in which China's growing power, not just military power but economic and political power, undermines the structures which have kept Asia peaceful for the last few decades. If we move beyond that to a new Asian order which is less peaceful, less stable and more contested, we'll see higher strategic risks of all kinds of descriptions. So in my opinion Australia needs to look carefully at its defence posture, not because China's rise poses direct threat to Australia but because China's rise needs to be accommodated and if we don't manage that accommodation process effectively Asia will move from a very stable area to a much less stable area and in those circumstances Australia could face many different kinds of threats.
