Pakistan's top court lifts political ban on Sharif brothers
Updated
Pakistan's Supreme Court has overturned an earlier decision banning popular former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and his brother, Shahbaz from running for political office.
Presenter:Sen Lam
Speaker:Kamran Bokhari, South Asia specialist for the global intelligence agency, STRATFOR
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BOKHARI: Political uncertainties are unlikely to be removed, because it is not clear what decision Mr Sharif will take in terms of the strategy to come to power now that he is eligible to run for office. I suspect that he will make it into parliament initially through a byelection from somewhere. He's very popular, so I don't see any challenge for him to get into parliament. That will be step one. And then step two will be whether to wait for the four year period to end to let this current parliament and the government run its course and then compete in elections or have early election. So that the prime minister and the former prime minister himself has not ruled out early elections, but at the same time, he has been saying he's been stressing that he wants to give this government its full five years.
LAM: Well, it may not remove the political uncertainties, but do you think this is small first step towards a full return to democracy and therefore also in a way legitimises the current government?
BOKHARI: It does provide a sense of legitimacy to the PPP government, but in terms of consolidation of democracy or deepening of democracy, I have my doubts about that. Because all of this is very new. I mean the judiciary just got reinstated and it's been empowered and now we have this verdict. But in the background, the army is still calling the shots. The army weighs in heavily and influences the direction of the political forces. So as long as you have a weak government and a divided parliament that the military can control, it's unlikely that we will see true democracy.
LAM: But nonetheless, it does put President Asif Ali Zardari whose welcomed the court's decision, it puts him and Nawaz Sharif on the same page, does it not and in a way it largely removes a distraction that the government does not need, as it battles the Taliban and other extremist elements?
BOKHARI: I would agree with that, I mean that it does bring the two main parties closer together in terms of a working arrangement. But from the point of view of President Zardari, he knows very well that his approval ratings are in the low teens, while those of Mr Sharif are in the high 80 per cent range. So that is a troubling sign for Mr Zardari, and there is also pressure to revert the current system, which is a odd amalgam of the presidential form of government and the parliamentary form of government, back to the original 1973 Constitution which says the form of government should be parliamentary, and that's another issue that President Zardari has to tackle and if it is to return to a parliamentary form of government and as per the demand from various quarters in the country, then he would have to decide whether he wants to remain president. I suspect that he would want to trade places with Mr Gilani as Prime Minister.
LAM: You mentioned the ongoing influence of the Pakistani military. Do we know what the military's top brass, what their attitude is towards Nawaz Sharif?
BOKHARI: There is a mixed attitude within the military institution from what I can tell towards Mr Sharif. There are those who feel that the army's natural relationship with any political force, with the civilians is through the Pakistan Muslim League and Sharif has long had a relationship with the army. In fact, he is the brought product of the days of General Zia-ul Haq, the former Pakistani military dictator. So there are those who view him from in that light. But conversely he has had his problems with the military and he's clashed with three different army chiefs in the past and so forcing at least one to resign. And therefore they see him as someone who is not maleable and not someone who they can manage and control and shape, because in sharp contrast with his origins, Mr Sharif has appropriated the mantle of being a populist leader. He is someone who is now emphasising his democratic credentials and therefore there are those within the military who see him as a not so favourable light.
