North Korea ratchets up the hostile rhetoric
Updated
North Korea's has made the dramatic declaration that it's no longer bound by the armistice that ended the Korean War in 1953. North Korea warns that it will attack any force attempting to halt or inspect its ships, after South Korea joined a US-led program to stop and search vessels suspected of transporting weapons of mass destruction to Pyongyang.
Presenter: Sen lam
Speaker: John McKay, Korea specialist and founding partner of the research group Analysis International
HILARY CLINTON: There are consequences to such actions. In the United Nations, as we speak, discussions are going on to try to rein in the North Koreans and get them back into a framework where they are once again fulfilling their obligations and moving toward denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.
LAM: John McKay good morning.
MCKAY: Good morning.
LAM: John, why is North Korea doing this?
MCKAY: Well I think there are three possible explanations; one is a sense of frustration that things are not moving faster, particularly in terms of some kind of recognition of the North Korean regime by the United States and some attempt to come to a peace treaty to normalise relationships between North Korea and the United States in particular, that's the first factor. The second factor I think is that there are many rumours about succession, power struggles within the North Korean regime, people jockeying for position and one of the things that is quite clear is that no one in North Korea wants to appear weak in the current situation and wants to put the military off-side. That's a second thing. The third thing is that North Korea and its economy are in a terrible state and North Korea always ratchets up tensions when it would like access to greater assistance and greater help in feeding its population and trying to do something about its energy needs in particular. So we're seeing a particular mix of those factors. All of that is probably made worse by a feeling that the United States is dithering and has dithered for a number of years. The Obama administration is living with I think the lack of a firm direction on North Korea for all of the years of the George W. Bush administration.
LAM: And that of course was the legacy as you say of the Bush administration, but the Obama administration has already indicated that it is open to nation-to-nation talks with North Korea. But why would Pyongyang expect things to move forward, when it carries out irresponsible acts like testing a nuclear bomb?
MCKAY: Well I think the North Koreans have high expectations of the Obama administration, perhaps unduly high expectations. I think they thought that President Obama would be much more easy to deal with than was the George W. Bush administration. I think it has come as a bit of a shock that many of the old lines are simply being repeated. North Korea, I don't think sees its actions as provocative, I think what the North is simply trying to do is to attract the attention of the Obama administration. I think we have to weed out North Korea's rhetoric from the reality. North Korea always makes these kinds of very saber rattling declarations, promises all kinds of retribution. In fact in the past this is nothing like this has ever happened. I think what North Korea is saying is that the Obama administration must take due regard of the situation in North Korea, and must give the situation the priority it deserves over other things in the rest of the world.
LAM: So John, given the events of the past week - the nuclear test, the missile strikes and now the revoking of the 1953 Armistice, does this mean that the six-party process is completely dead?
MCKAY: Oh yes I think so, I think the six-party talks is dead and gone, at least for the foreseeable future. There are constant calls for North Korea to return to the six-party talks. I don't think there's any chance of that at the moment. I think North Korea is making it very clear that it wants to deal directly with the United States. It sees the six-party talks anyway as some kind of distraction from what it sees at the main game. I think we're in for a period of heightened tensions, a great deal of rhetoric, a great deal of sabre-rattling and perhaps some border skirmishes. I think the situation on the sea border between North and South Korea is worrying. But I don't see any way out of this at the moment. I don't think there's going to be a war on the Korean peninsula but I think we're in for some fairly turbulent times.
LAM: Indeed as you say sabre-rattling, the North Korean rhetoric even by Pyongyang's standard seems very hostile. Should we be alarmed?
MCKAY: Not unduly, I don't think, I think as I said earlier the succession situation is demanding that everyone should be talking very tough. I wouldn't read too much into this, I really don't think there's going to be any kind of all-out return to the Korean War. As I said there might be some kind of skirmishes and they would be serious enough, but I think if both sides keep their cool a little bit and no one does anything silly and I don't think the North Koreans are going to do anything silly by the way, I think the situation will calm down eventually. But I don't think we're going to see the six-party talks resume.
