Pakistan could be planning high risk strategy in South Waziristan
Updated
Officials from Pakistan and unnamed US officials say Pakistani forces are set to target the lawless tribal region of South Waziristan in an effort to kill or capture Pakistani Taliban leader, Baitullah Mehsud, who's based there. And if they do, it could be a high risk strategy in the country's battle against Taliban militants. But leading experts say Pakistan should first consolidate what it's gained in the Swat Valley.
Presenter: Linda Mottram
Speaker: Jeremy Binney, senior terrorism analyst, Janes Intelligence Centre; Urmila Vernugopalan, South Asia analyst, Janes Intelligence Centre
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MOTTRAM: Further cementing it's bloody reputation, the Pakistani Taliban, headed by Baitullah Mehsud, has claimed responsibility for three recent attacks: the bombing of Peshawar's Pearl Continental hotel last week, a lethal mosque bombing in the country's northwest on Friday, and the killing on the same day of an outspoken anti-Taliban cleric in an attack on his mosque in the Eastern city of Lahore. Analysts speaking at an online seminar for the respected Janes Intelligence Centre have described Mehsud as the more extreme face of the Pakistan based insurgency. Janes senior terrorism analyst is Jeremy Binney.
BINNEY: He has been one of the first Taliban Commanders to come forward and legitimise attacking the fellow Muslims in Pakistan on the basis that they are collaborating with the enemies of Islam.
MOTTRAM: The seminar was told that Mehsud's claims of responsibility for attacks outside the North West Frontier Province have been aimed at raising his profile beyond the confines of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, or FATA, and into the Pakistani heartland. Janes' South Asia analyst, Urmila Vernugopalan, says this should inform any assessment of where the insurgency threat in Pakistan is coming from.
VERNUGOPALAN: There is a tendency to view militancy in Pakistan as somehow ethnically segregated - a Pushtun militant wherever he may be found seems to immediately suggest the TTP, meanwhile a Punjabi jihadist suggests one of the Punjab based groups. But no such clear distinction exists. Despite the claim of responsibility by the TTP for various attacks in the heartland it is likely the Pakistani Taliban relied on the networks of Punjab based jihadi groups, possibly the LEJ in order to carry out the attacks.
MOTTRAM: After the upsurge in violence of recent days, and the Pakistani Taliban's claims of responsibility, a US drone reportedly struck Baitullah Mehsud's base in south Waziristan, killing a number of civilians. And officials from the US and Pakistan were reported as saying that Waziristan would now be a focus for the Pakistani military's operations, aiming to wipe out Mehsud.
Jeremy Binney from Janes says there are some clashes going on in the area, but he's sceptical that there'll be a sustained Pakistani offensive there.
BINNEY: The Pakistani military might not want to spread itself too thinly and really the Waziristan district agencies are quite literally a hornets nest, very mountainous territory, where they face sustained guerilla action. So, it might be prudent for them to actually secure other areas first and progressively roll the Taliban back.
MOTTRAM: In other words, consolidate in the Swat Valley, where the fight is not over yet.
There's also a cautious view of claims that Pakistan faces an existential threat from the militants. Beyond headlines of the Taliban looming on the capital, Janes research shows the people of Pakistan's lawless northwest are still overwhelmingly bearing the brunt of violence. Attacks against major cities punctuate that trend and cause media headlines but are proving difficult for the extremists to sustain.
There is a grave security threat, the analysts say, but the militants still face a half-a-million strong Pakistani military and overwhelming public opposition to militant Islam.
South Asia analyst Urmila Vernugopalan also says the fights against Pakistan's militants must exploit ongoing tribal splits as well as rivalry over issues like leadership, tactics, and chain of command.
VERNUGOPALAN: An understanding of these intra-tribal divisions could help security forces on both sides of the Durand line undermine the movement.
MOTTRAM: The targeting of the anti-Taliban cleric is also likely to drive a wedge between different elements.
Despite some hopeful signs, the Janes experts warn there'll be no quick victory against Pakistan's militants. And though some analysts dismiss the notion that poverty is a factor in militancy, Jeremy Binney and Urmila Vernugoplan say their evidence is that young, unmarried, unemployed youth and young men are being used by the militants. They also warn of a further risk that what now stands as strong anti-militant sentiment among the two and a half million people displaced by fighting in the Swat Valley could yet be turned around, unless they are given a chance of returning to their homes and their lives.
