Hopes rest on China to save Copenhagen climate deal
Updated
A top Australian climate change economist says there are reasons to hope that China will act to rescue the floundering Copenhagen climate change negotiations, but nothing is certain.
China's due to announce new carbon pollution reduction plans and Professor Stephen Howes, who worked on the Australian government's carbon pollution reduction scheme, says it's possible the world's biggest emitter may yet salvage a new international agreement. The conference discussion coincides with a high profile visit to Australia by the former US vice president Al Gore, whose held talks with the Australian prime minister, Kevin Rudd. Al Gore's optimistic about Copenhagen, while Kevin Rudd has a few qualms.
Presenter: Linda Mottram, Canberra correspondent
Speakers: Professor Jinjun Xue, economist, Nagoya University; Professor Stephen Howes, climate economist, Australian National University; Al Gore, former US vice president
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MOTTRAM: With the Copenhagen climate change conference looming in December and general agreement that negotiations for an international agreement are not going well, there's significant focus on whether China can save the day. The issue has been a major focus for the Australian National University's annual China Update conference in Canberra. And a key question is how China can reconcile its goal of continuing high economic growth as it aims to create no fewer than one million new jobs a year with the pressing need Beijing has recognised to reduce carbon pollution.
Professor Jinjun Xue of Nagoya University told the conference that on present models for development China's environment will have to get worse before it gets better. But he says China is making important changes, for example, in improving energy efficiency.
XUE: The Chinese government are introducing energy saving light system. For example, Yungdu City changed all lights into LED lights, that's energy saving lights. And also just a few weeks ago the Chinese government announced that they will build the world's largest wind power system in China. And then, the latest news, that China is now making a national development strategy of the low carbon economy.
MOTTRAM: He says officials in Beijing last week told him that a new move is underway to prepare low carbon vehicle regulations as the roads in China's cities grow clogged with cars and their pollution. But Professor Xue says new technologies will be vital if China is to short circuit the usual high carbon path to development. And he says the responsibility is not just China's.
XUE: Because advanced country invested in China, they export goods to our country, but leave pollutant, carbon emissions, in China. So, not only China, but also international society has responsibility to help China reducing carbon emission.
MOTTRAM: Another indicator of China's intentions will come when it soon releases new domestic carbon reduction targets. Professor Stephen Howes worked on the Australian government's carbon pollution reduction plans and is closely following China's evolving approach. He says despite China's very rapid emissions growth this decade, it has also put in place important mitigation measures and there's speculation it could go a lot further with its looming announcement.
HOWES: Perhaps China might announce a target of halving its energy intensity, that is doubling its energy efficiency, relative to 2005, by 2020. Perhaps China might go further and combine its renewable energy target and its energy efficiency target into an emissions intensity target, that is have a target the ratio of greenhouse gas emissions to GDP and aim to halve that by 2020 relative to 2005.
MOTTRAM: Such targets would be seen as ambitious, particularly given China's progress on existing targets to 2010.
HOWES: China's only really started to have success with regard to that target last year not really because of policy effort but because the global downturn hit energy intensive industries in China particularly hard.
MOTTRAM: Still Professor Howes says the vital question is whether China would write new targets into an international treaty. If it doesn't Professor Howes says the other key player, the United States, would baulk at putting its signature on an international deal. And while domestic mitigation measures are spreading around the world, Professor Howes says an international agreement remains vital if human induced climate change is to be effectively addressed.
Politics, though, remain a key obstacle. Despite big hopes from the Obama administration in the US, and its domestic plans on carbon pollution reduction, it hasn't delivered a breakthrough change of heart at the Copenhagen talks. And Australia's carbon pollution reduction legislation may well stall in a hostile upper house of parliament in the coming month. After talks in Sydney with Australia's prime minister Kevin Rudd, whose been vocal in his pessimism about Copenhagen, one of the most prominent climate change lobbyists, former US vice president Al Gore said he nonetheless remained an optimist.
GORE: And I hope that the other leaders around the world will take up prime minister Rudd on his suggestion that heads of state meet personally and really grapple with a solution to the political impasse globally.
