Chinese leaders fail to appoint heir-apparent
Updated
A key political meeting of China's leaders has ended in Beijing, setting out the nation's broad policy direction and identifying key challenges ahead.
The annual four-day plenary session ended without naming an heir apparent to President Hu Jintao.
Presenter: Sen Lam
Speaker: Arthur Waldron, Professor of International Studies, University of Pennsylvannia
- Listen:
- Windows Media
WALDRON: Well, they talked a bit about intra-party democracy, they talked about corruption. They are concerned with maintaining harmony within the party, but of course the chief issue everyone was looking at was whether Xi Jinping was going to be made a member of the all-powerful Central Military Commission, which would have paved the way for him to takeover as Chairman of the party in 2012. But he did not receive this promotion and therefore, there is some question about the smoothness of the upcoming power transition.
LAM: Indeed, as you say, the official Xi Jingping was meant to be or expected to be named vice-chair of the Central Military Commission, that of course is a traditional path towards the leadership post. Do you think the fact that they failed to name him, that that necessarily mean that China's in for a difficult period of transition?
WALDRON: Well, I think what you have really here on one level is simply factional politics. You have nine members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo and five of these are associated with the former leader, Jiang Zemin, and four of them are associated with Hu Jintao. So, Hu Jintao does not have the votes, assuming that they are going to make the decision by votes and Jiang Zemin has no particular reason, for reasons that go back to the interaction between the two men for helping Hu Jintao out. So that's one reason, but there are other issues that China faces that I think have some baring two.
LAM: And of course there are other people interested in the job as well, including vice-premier, Li Keqiang and the party chief of Chongqing, Bo Xilai. Do you think that's further complicated the issue?
WALDRON: Well, of course, because in the old days when Chairman Mao was the chairman, the centre meant Mao. And when Deng was the chairman, the centre meant Deng and these were both people who stood head and shoulders, if not more above all the other members of the party. But today, the people that you have mentioned, they're all very, very similar and it's hard really to justify taking supreme power and giving it to one of them and not giving to the other. So I think that the party leadership is not quite sure what to do, because they have grown up saying look, we always do whatever the Qong Yang, whatever the centre says. Well now they are the centre and there are a group of them and they cannot figure out which of them is going to be the leader of the group. If they cannot figure out which one is going to be the leader of the group, then they are going to have to figure out how to make decisions on some basis other than simply follow the leader.
LAM: And you mentioned 2012 earlier. Hu Jintao of course is still relatively young by Chinese Communist Party standards. Is it conceivable that he might stay on beyond 2012?
WALDRON: Well, if he did that, that would be a violation of .. not that China has any rules of succession ... as far as I can think, there has never been a succession that really follows rules, but that would be .... He was born in 1942 .. that would be a real departure. I think there is an expectation that some two people from the so-called fifth generation are going to takeover and the only question is going to be how the party is to decide. I think that is one of the reasons that Hu Jintao was talking about intra-party harmony, because if he is talking about a need for harmony, that means that there is not any harmony.
