Afghan president 'under pressure' to cancel poll
Updated
Without an opposition candidate, holding a presidential election run off in Afghanistan would pointless. It would also be dangerous for voters, officials and those providing security for the poll.
Presenter: Sen Lam
Speaker: Professor Amin Saikal, Director of the Centre of Arab & Islamic Studies, at the Australian National University.
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SAIKAL: Well, I think it is possible, but at the same time I think President Karzai will come under enormous pressure to cancel this election, because it is going to be very costly and at the same time, it is going to tie up a large number of foreign troops to the task protecting this election and to the conduct of this election, and I think for that reason more soldiers will have to put their life on the line and the international pressure will mount on President Karzai as well as his administration not to go ahead with this run off election, because there is not going to be much point in it. Dr Abdullah has now withdrawn and of course there is no constitutional provision at the moment to work out the situation from this point, but the independent electoral commission which is not really all that independent, because all the members have been appointed by President Karzai could declare President Karzai as the winner of this election and the supreme court could confirm his election and I think that should be the end of the matter.
LAM: Amin Saikal, you have been following Afghanistan for sometime now. What's your personal opinion? Do you think the elections should go ahead if it is just a one horse race?
SAIKAL: I don't think so, I don't think so. I don't think there is really much point in that, but of course that does not necessarily mean that President Karzai will have the degree of credibility and legitimacy that he would have required if there was a run off and I think that might be something behind Dr Abdullah's intentions to withdraw. I mean Dr Abdullah basically pointed out two issues of concern. One is that President Karzai did not meet his conditions for a rerun and one of them was to dismiss the head of the Electoral Commission and the other one was to be as much inclusive as possible, but at the same time, he has made it absolutely clear that he's acting in the best interest of Afghanistan and the best interest of national unity in the country. Now I think President Karzai would have to do everything possible to rebuild his credibility and the only way he can do that is to become far more inclusive and work very hard to create a government of national unity, a government which would have credibility and will not be as corrupt and as dysfunctional over the kind of administration that he has presided over the last eight years.
LAM: Would such a coalition government be welcomed by the people of Afghanistan, do you think?
SAIKAL: I think it is very possible, because at the moment the Afghan population is highly polarised, I mean there are supporters of Dr Abdullah and there are supporters of President Karzai and at the same time, there is a third group, and that is the supporters of the Taliban, and I think the only way that Karzai and his supporters could possibly strengthen their position against the Taliban and combat the Taliban and at the same time earn the respect of the majority of the Afghan people and international supporters of the government is to create a government of national unity and create a government which will be as credible as possible.
LAM: What are the chances of Dr Abdullah, the former foreign minister and the chief rival of Hamid Karzai, what are the chances of him changing his mind before Saturday?
SAIKAL: Well, I think so far he has been quite firm on the issue of not participating in coalition government with President Karzai, but it will also depend on what President Karzai is going to offer. One of the important reforms that Dr Abdullah has advocated for is to have a stronger parliamentary system of governance as against the strong presidential system of governance that President Karzai and his supporters have created over the last many years and simply has not really worked. I mean what is really required is a more decentralised parliamentary system of government which could lock in a larger number of strong men, and Afghanistan has historically been a land of strong men into positions of national responsibility and national obligation and at the same time to provide for a better connections between people and the system of the governance at the village level, at the provincial level and federal level.
