US diplomatic drive under way in Burma
Updated
The United States has begun its diplomatic drive in Burma, with two top envoys holding talks with the military regime.
The visit by Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and his deputy Scot Marciel is the latest move by the Obama administration to engage Burma, without abandoning existing sanctions.
Presenter: Sen Lam.
Speaker: Professor Sean Turnell, MacQuarie University & Burma Economics Watch
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TURNELL: Well, I think that remains to be seen. I think it is an initiative that is well worth pursuing, because of course, as the Americans have observed, nothing much has worked up until now. So I think it is very much an effort to come up with something new. I think the critical issue is the attitude of the regime itself. I think, in a sense the Americans have extended a hand of cooperation and I think what we're going to see of course is whether the regime is actually sincere in entering into dialogue.
LAM: Indeed, I understand Secretary Campbell will get to see Prime Minister Thein Sein later this morning, but not the strong man, Than Shwe, General Than Shwe. Is the Burmese General adopting a wait and see attitude do you think?
TURNELL: It's really difficult to say, but what you highlight there is actually the critical issue. Unless they can talk to Than Shwe, then, really I think it is impossible to be very confident about this, because he really does make the decisions. It's interesting over the last few years, that power in Burma has very much concentrated in the figure of Than Shwe. I think it's been an unexpected development that for many watchers in the place, so that is the critical issue. So I think if the Americans don't get to meet him, I for one, am not that confident about what might emerge.
LAM: So Prime Minister, Thein Sein is on the 'B' list if you like?
TURNELL: Very much so, very much so. It is still a positive development, but unless they can really access Than Shwe, then as I say, it is really difficult to be confident of a positive outcome.
LAM: And Sean Turnell, the US delegation is reportedly the highest level contact with the regime in over ten years. How tough do you think the Obama administration will be with the generals in Rangoon?
TURNELL: Well, I think there is an appropriate level of toughness still there. I am very pleased, for instance, to see that the Americans have not yet taken sanctions off the table, because I think actually in many ways, sanctions could turn out to be something quite useful in the years ahead, because in a sense, it is money in the bank that can perhaps be bargained away, for genuine reform. So I have been very pleased to see that the Americans have not yet put sanctions on the table. At the same time though, they have very much said, look, we're ready to turn the page, we're ready to enter into dialogue.
LAM: Is there any proof that these sanctions are beginning to hit the hip pockets of the Burmese generals?
TURNELL: Well, I think there is some evidence that the sanctions do hit them personally. As I think many people would be aware countries like the US and countries like Australia, have some very good targeted sanctions on members of the regime, particularly in the area of financial services. And those sanctions I think do hit the right people, in more or less in the right way. So I think those ones are quite effective. Some of the others are more debatable, but I think those targeted financial sanctions do hit the mark.
LAM: And Sean Turnell, the two US officials will call on Ms Aung San Suu Kyi later today. Now this may be a concession by the military regime, but surely, the ultimate goal must be to get Ms Suu Kyi released from house arrest?
TURNELL: Oh it certainly is, that's the ultimate objective for the Americans, and I think just about .. it should be the objective of almost everyone really, because she is obviously key to Burma's future. You know, it's often said that the military in Burma will continue to play a role, which I think is true, but equally, of course, Suu Kyi and her party, which still has immense support in Burma, is absolutely critical to Burma's future. So I again very pleased to see that the Americans are holding conversations with her as well.
LAM: Well Prime Minister Thein Sein also told ASEAN leaders at Hua Hin last month, at the summit, that the junta does see a role for Ms Suu Kyi in fostering reconciliation in Burma. How sincere was he when he made that comment?
TURNELL: Oh, it's difficult to say Sen Lam. It's really, but it is hard to be optimistic, because they are actually keeping her in prison, under house arrest, but still in custody and on very much and quite obvious trumped up charges. So one would have to doubt the sincerity of that and really, I think her release is the only thing that can signal to us that they do have some sincerity.
