North using battle for diplomatic gain

Updated November 11, 2009 14:27:38

North and South Korea have been bitterly divided since the 1950 war ended three years later without a peace treaty.

After the latest incident Pyongyang wants a full apology, while political observers in South Korea say the North may have deliberately sought to up the ante, eight days before a visit to Seoul by U-S President Barack Obama.


Presenter: Sen Lam
Speaker: Scott Bruce, director of US operations, at the Nautilus Institute, San Francisco

BRUCE: It's not clearly defined, first of all, because it is just a line at sea, but more importantly, that North Korea does not recognise the Northern Limit Line as it is called as a legitimate boundary between the two countries. The North claims the line much further to the South. Now this makes the line a disputed maritime boundary and that thus a potential flashpoint for conflict between North and South. What's unique about this situation though is not that the line was crossed. Afterall, there has been something like 150 violations of the line since 2001, sometimes these are military vessels, other times they are fishing ships that have just drifted across the boundary or intentionally crossed it to fish in southern waters. What's unique here is that there was actually a change of fire over it and that has not happened in seven years. As your correspondent mentioned, the last time was in 2002, the time before that was in 1999.

LAM: So I guess it's a good thing that both sides do seem to be exercising restraint over the last few years?

BRUCE: It does, although it is important to note that after its second nuclear test, North Korea said that it would respond to attempts to force that limit line by the South with all force necessary.

LAM: And Scott, what's your reading of the situation? Do you think this is yet more attention seeking behaviour from North Korea?

BRUCE: Well, there've been some reports that there was a Chinese fishing boat in the area, so it's possible that this could have been a mistake. But I would say that given the timing, which comes just after a North Korean envoy returned from the United States, just before President Obama travels to the region, and just as today the United States announced the dispatch of special envoy Stephen Bosworth to North Korea. This should be understood as North Korea emphasising its military strength before these talks. This reinforces the potential threat that the North poses, to show the alternative to negotiation, you can either have talks or you can have a conflict. And furthermore, it allows North Korea to enter negotiations as a tough country with a strong military, not a rogue regime with a medieval economy.

LAM: And yet it was the North Korean vessel that was seen off by the South Korean navy. So how does Pyongyang's navy compare to the South in terms of offensive capability?

BRUCE: Well, North Korea certainly has the potential to cause very annoying problems for South Korea. However, it is greatly outmatched by the South in terms of military balance. The South is one of the largest and most advanced blue water navies in the Pacific and it is still expanding. There is going to be a new set of advanced submarines and destroyers coming in line over the next decade or so. Now by comparison, North Korea has some ability to defend along its border. It has very little capability for long distance operations and its technology is largely outdated and getting older.

LAM: Well US President Obama goes to Korea next week, after the APEC meeting in Singapore. Is he likely to take anything new to President Lee Myung-bak in Seoul?

BRUCE: Well I think the goal of that meeting, that President Obama will have with Lee Myung-bak and others is not to lean on them or bring any new information, but instead to alliance strategies with them before the US envoy is dispatched to the North. North Korea has a long history of trying to play different allies against one another, using a divide and conquer strategy. This meeting, to the extent that it is about North Korea, given the other priorities in the region, such as the economy, climate change etc. is going to be focused on aligning perspectives between allies in advance of this trip to the North.

LAM: And Lee-Myung-bak of course has the reputation of being a straight talker, do you think he might lean on President Obama a little bit to get tough with Pyongyang?

BRUCE: Well, he's been warming up to the North. What he's interested in is primarily reciprocity from North Korea and I think that he is very much in line with the Obama administration on this. The Obama administration has said they will not buy the same horse twice, meaning they will not reward North Korea for returning to agreements that North Korea has already agreed to and then walked away from. I think the South Korean Government is going to be very much in line with looking for some sign from North Korea that they are willing to commit to a nuclear agreement, rather than just giving them more aid for a process that may last forever with no real result.