Taliban attacks school in northwest Pakistan
Updated
Pakistan's volatile north-western region has again been hit by violence - this time, an attack on a school which killed at least 10 people, including three schoolgirls and three American soldiers. The Taliban has claimed responsibility for the attack, which also wounded 40 school girls. The violence occured near the Swat Valley, where Pakistani security forces mounted an assault against Taliban militants earlier last year.
Presenter: Sen Lam
Speaker: Kamran Bokhari, South Asia specialist, Stratfor
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BOKHARI: I think that they had some intelligence. The Americans in general would be there, because this is a US-funded school and its inauguration from their point of view, would likely draw somebody from America. I don't think that they knew that it would be US soldiers. They thought there would probably be a civilian, and they have that kind of intelligence. And such information is not even intelligence, it's hard to keep a secret about a school which is US funded being opened in that area.
LAM: Do you think though that the Taliban is making good its threat to increasingly target American soldiers in Pakistan?
BOKHARI: I don't think so. I think that this is more of a target of opportunity. This is the second attack carried out against US interests by the Pakistan Taliban rebel group, the TTP. The first as you would recall was the hit against the CIA in Khost across the border in Afghanistan, and that too was a target of opportunity - they happened to make contact with this potential suicide bomber who had access to the agency officials. And in this case it just so happened that US soldiers were the ones attending the opening ceremony of the school. So I don't think that they have the capability to target the United States. These are opportunities that have presented themselves to the Taliban, and they've made good use of them.
LAM: Well the girl's school is obviously a soft target - three schoolgirls died, over 40 schoolgirls were injured. Do you think this might weaken tribal support to the Taliban in the area?
BOKHARI: I think it's already very weak. The fact that the Pakistani military launched a major offensive in Swat and then followed by south Warizstan and is now hammering the Taliban all across the FATA. I think that would not have been possible if public opinion hadn't shifted from the Taliban, I'm talking about public opinion in the area, it would not be possible for the army to just roll in without public support.
LAM: How embarrassing is this latest attack for the civilian government of Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari?
BOKHARI: There have been so many attacks that I don't think it's a function of embarrassment anymore. I think that it's very clear to both Islamabad and Washington that these attacks are going to happen. But if you notice that there has been a shift in the making in terms of the American mood. Today, General Petraeus came out with a statement defending the Pakistani decision to not expand the scope of its counter-insurgency efforts. I mean this is in contrast to the longstanding American demand that the Pakistanis do more in its efforts against the militants. Now we have the General saying that the Pakistani military is as stretched as it can be, and we'd like the Pakistanis to help the negotiations with the Afghan Taliban. So this is a major shift on the part of the US.
LAM: But is the sub-text there, that the US will continue to maintain its right to launch US drone attacks in the region?
BOKHARI: I think so, I think so because that's the only, I wouldn't say the only, but the key tool in the US arsenal. Mind you, putting boots on the ground, American boots on the ground is a red line for the Pakistanis, and the Americans are not willing to cross that red line and therefore they want to be cooperative. So I think at the end of the day what the US can basically get the Pakistanis to agree to in some shape or form is these UAV strikes, the unmanned aerial vehicle strikes, and of course the use of special forces on occasion.
