Pakistan's Taliban militants fighting to survive
Updated
Civilians are still paying the price in Pakistan's conflict. This week militants killed six World Vision aid workers and two weeks ago suicide bombers destroyed intelligence offices in the city of Lahore. But while the attacks continue, many commentators say the Pakistan Taliban is in fact fighting to survive. Since the military launched major operations last year, the militants have lost massive territory and several key leaders.
Presenter: Matt Abud
Speakers: Ismail Khan, Pakistan journalist: Former Major-General Jamshed Ayah Khan, military analyst
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ABUD: Over three thousand civilians were killed in militant attacks in Pakistan in 2009 - and the killings have taken place all around the country, including in its biggest cities. But that might not be a sign of strength. Some say that when the Taliban ramped up attacks on Pakistani civilians, it pushed the country's leaders to finally crack down.
Ismail Khan has covered the Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan for many years, for media including the New York Times and Pakistan's prominent Dawn newspaper. He says the previous government led by General Musharraf thought they could control the Taliban and use the movement for their own ends - and this complacency allowed the militants to gain strength. But this attitude has changed.
KHAN: There was a realisation that this was no longer America's war on terror, this was Pakistan's own war on terror, and these were the Pakistani Taliban who were threatening the state edifice. So that was the realisation at the political level and the military level.
ABUD: The change came in the Swat Valley in Pakistan's north. The Taliban gained control of the area, imposing Shariah law and staging attacks further south. But last July, the military launched a major operation and drove most of them out.
Since then, the Taliban have lost large amounts of territory. Last week the military announced they'd captured another significant area, Bajur, again in the north. And several major figures have also been killed. The Taliban's top leader, Baitullah Mehsud, was killed in August last year. His replacement, Hakimullah Mehsud, reportedly died in an attack in January. Further reports say he still hasn't been replaced.
Former Major-General Jamshed Ayah Khan, retired from the army, now works as a military analyst and commentator.
KHAN: When this leader is eliminated, either arrested or killed, then there is a problem in leadership. Then there's infighting, because everyone wants to be leader, and it's not a very disciplined organisation. So now they have had problems.
ABUD: The Pakistan Taliban hasn't been totally defeated. They still have a strong presence elsewhere in the country's North-West, including the tribal area of North Waziristan.
Major-General Khan doesn't believe the army will take on the militants in that stronghold just yet. He thinks operations will instead contain militants in the area - and perhaps negotiate, or perhaps launch more strikes later.
Some commentators say Pakistan is finally paying attention to US demands to crack down on the Taliban, as a mutual threat to both countries. They talk about a 'sea-change' in Pakistan-US cooperation, and for evidence point to the arrest of a major Afghan-Taliban leader last week.
But Major-General Khan rejects the idea that the US has a significant role in the new approach.
KHAN: I've read it all over the Western press, that there's a sea change in Pakistan. I don't agree with this. I think what Pakistanis knows about this area, nobody knows, not even the CIA or what have you. So I think we need not go according to the philosophy of the Americans, or the west. We know what we're doing.
ABUD: Pakistan's military had been accused of covertly supporting the Taliban for several years. This was part of complex political strategies, which used the militants in Afghanistan, to guarantee regional influence.
In Pakistani debates, this is called 'strategic depth'. The thinking goes that if another country - whether India, or a Western power - gets too much influence in Afghanistan then the Taliban could help Pakistan weaken that influence. Pakistan and India have already fought three wars, and the West isn't always friendly. So for the military, there's logic to that approach.
But attacks on the Pakistan Taliban have a major impact on their Afghan colleagues, who are fighting Western Coalition troops. So does this mean that Pakistan has abandoned the idea of 'strategic depth'? Ismail Khan doesn't think so.
KHAN: The new definition is we want to have a friendly stable government in Afghanistan. That's why the Pakistan policy has been, the stated policy is, that they want the Americans to involve them in all negotiations with the Taliban and any future dispensation in Afghanistan.
ABUD: There's a long way to go before the current conflict reaches any conclusion. But for Pakistan's Taliban, the rules have changed in a violent and often brutal strategic game.
