Fiji ignoring trade blocs at peril
By ignoring calls from Pacific leaders, the EU and US for elections within two years, Fiji risks losing its vital subsidies. Campbell Cooney, Pacific Correspondent for Radio Australia, reports.

Last December when I was in Suva after Commodore Frank Bainimarama overthrew the government of Laisenia Quarase, I asked some local journalists how soon would we know if the coup would be judged either a success, or failure. Now between those journalists there is decades of experience reporting on their homeland, including covering all Fiji's coups over the past 20 years. Their opinion was: "Give it six months".

In the months just after the coup events in Fiji raised plenty of eyebrows. But in early March after a meeting of Pacific Nation foreign ministers in Vanuatu the situation in Fiji seemed to improve. The ministers accepted a recommendation Fiji should hold elections within two years, a year sooner than Fiji wanted. And Fiji's foreign minister Ratu Epeli Nailatikau said the interim government would look at meeting that timetable.

Soon after that Fiji was asked to explain to the European Union why it should still be given nearly $US28 million a year in sugar subsidies. After the meeting the EU said it would continue to pay, but only if elections were held within two years. Fiji hadn't said yes to either, but it also hadn't said no.

At the same time Commodore Bainimarama restrained the military and allegations of human rights abuses appeared to dry up. But as that six month anniversary approaches, there is some feeling things have gone backwards again.

Since the coup the military's been fighting a running a battle against the self titled Freedom Bloggers, a group of anonymous online critics of the country's leaders. Publicly the military said they were ignoring them. In reality it's been trying to find and silence those responsible. And at least one person suspected of being a blogger has been detained, and has alleged abuse at the hands of the army. As well being the acting director of Fiji's SDL political party, Ted Young says he was punched in the head while being interrogated by the military in Suva.

Sato Kilman is Vanuatu's foreign minister and the chairman of the Pacific Forum's Eminent Persons Group, which is working with Fiji on a return to democracy. This is what he told the ABC about the new allegations of abuse.

"It doesn't show good faith on the side of the interim government."

In response, interim prime minister Commodore Frank Bainimarama said Mr Kilman should put his feet up and relax, as he won't have to live in Fiji.

What's also worrying many involved in Pacific politics is that election commitment. Fiji had indicated it was looking at bringing its election timetable forward to 2009. But interim finance minister Mahendra Chaudhry has told reporters in India, Fiji won't be holding elections before the original deadline of 2010.

The nations of the Pacific Island Forum, in particular Australia and New Zealand, have offered to help and reopen the diplomatic doors. But only if Fiji commits to elections in two years. The European Union has made it clear its sugar money depends on elections in 2009. And if Fiji thinks the EU's bluffing, they should remember that after the year 2000 coup, it was four years before EU sugar money started rolling again.

As the half year anniversary approaches, public service wages are frozen, tourism is in decline and economic forecasts are gloomy. And Fiji seems to want to play diplomatic poker with the EU and the Pacific Forum.

But there's been a recent reminder another powerful world player has the interim leadership in its sites. Here's part of what of the US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice told Pacific leaders in Washington earlier this month.

"The United States is deeply concerned about the unlawful overthrow of the freely elected government in Fiji."

When one of the most powerful people, in the most powerful nation in the world, criticises a country's leadership and direction, it's a shot across the bows you ignore at your peril.

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