Australian government MPs questio Howard's leadership
The Australian government's pre-election nerves turned into panic this week as cabinet ministers questioned whether the prime minister, John Howard, should lead them to the national election, due to be called in the next two months. Graeme Dobell explains.

The government has been trailing the opposition Labor party in the opinion polls throughout the year, and that is causing soul-searching inside the Howard government.

To calm the leadership storm, Mr Howard has announced that, if re-elected, he will step down as prime minister at some point during the government's next three year term.

There is an old rule of cross examination taught to all lawyers. Never ask a witness a question if you don't know what the likely answer will be - otherwise you could get a surprising, even a dangerous reply. Well Australia's prime minister, John Howard, has just been guilty of asking his cabinet colleagues the wrong question - or at least getting an answer he did not want to hear.

At the beginning of last week, Australian government ministers - in Sydney for the Asia Pacific summit - got a rude shock from their morning newspaper. The opinion poll on the front page of the Murdoch newspaper, The Australian, was a disaster for the Howard government - showing the Labor opposition had a gigantic lead. In two party terms, the poll had Labor ahead by 18 per cent - favoured by 59 per cent of those asked, compared to 41 per cent for the coalition.

The government has been trailing in the opinion surveys all year. But this poll, only weeks away from the start of the election campaign, seems to have spooked ministers. A vote of that size for Labor would produce an election landslide, reducing the coalition parties to perhaps one-third of the seats in the lower house, giving Labor a massive majority.

It is what happened next that tipped the government from nervous to deep panic. John Howard asked his close ally, the foreign minister, Alexander Downer, to sound out senior members of cabinet about the options for a government staring at the omens of a disastrous election.

Mr Downer called a private meeting of senior cabinet members in his hotel room in Sydney. According to the foreign minister, they discussed all options. One of those options, logically, was for Mr Howard to step down from the prime ministers job he has held for 11 years and allow his deputy, the treasurer, Peter Costello, to take over. Perhaps a quick switch at the top would get the voters to think again.

A number of cabinet ministers went further, telling the prime minister that it is time for him to go. The government's house is on fire ... ditching the PM might just help save some of the furniture.

In asking Mr Downer to sound out cabinet, Mr Howard had asked a dangerous question. Especially because it brought into the open the reality a number of important cabinet members believe, that their leader has passed his "use by" date.

The prime minister came out fighting. Mr Howard hosed down the mounting crisis by announcing bluntly that he is not going anywhere and he will lead the government in the election he must call for sometime in October or November.

The problem for Mr Howard is that political gravity is starting to catch up with him. He has been PM since March, 1996 - perhaps the voters just aren't listening any more.

The prime minister is seeking to calm his party, arguing that there is no real mood for change as the economic good times keep rolling. The polls are against him, but Mr Howard knows history is on his side. Over the last 60 years, Australia has held an election, on average, every two-and-a-half years ... and in only four of those elections has the sitting government been tossed out. The Howard hope is that when he asks the big election question of the voters, they will follow the rhythms of history and not give him a nasty answer.

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