ANU analyst says decision on Govt illegality is positive for Fiji
Updated
Doctor Jon Fraenkel of the Australian National University's State, Society and Governance Program says Fiji's Court of Appeal decision declaring the interim Government illegal is enormously positive for the country, but that everything now turns on the President's actions.
Presenter Linda Mottram
Speaker: from the Australian National University's Dr Jon Fraenkel
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DR JON FRAENKEL: Well the court is being careful not to simply argue that the previous Government should be reinstated, they said that too much time has elapsed since the coup of December 5th 2006, instead they've suggested that the President appoint an independent person as a caretaker Prime Minister who will advise that Parliament be dissolved and then make way for elections reasonably rapidly after that. So everything now turns on what happens in the President's office. Does the President act as he should have done arguably two years ago, within the constitution, and try and find some way of back to elected democracy? And, of course, the danger here is that the military seek to abrogate the constitution, one hopes that wise counsel will prevail and they will accept this judgment and that they will realise that really things can't go on in this way and it's about time to get back to constitutional democracy.
LINDA MOTTRAM: But if the President chooses not to take that path, and as you say, arguably he should have done it some time ago, and hasn't, then that should surely indicate that there's a chance that he won't do that, what would be the fate for Fiji, in that case?
DR JON FRAENKEL: Well, if you imagine away today's judgment for a moment, even yesterday it certainly appears that things can't go on in this way, the economy is in dire straits, the position with the reserves is dreadful, the Government expenditure is reeling, the revenue coming in is not sufficient to finance that expenditure. Support is drifting away from the coup-makers, people have been sacked, people have resigned, people have been pushed aside. The Commander has very few allies at the moment. This is not a coup that is strengthening its political support, it's not a coup that's consolidating. The interim Government is weak and it lacks allies, it's time to call it an end game. I think this judgment just provides the way for that to happen, it provides an avenue for the ending of this very bleak period that Fiji has been through over the last two years.
LINDA MOTTRAM: Frank Bainimarama, though, nonetheless is a very determined man with particular views. There is a chance, isn't there, that he will hang on?
DR JON FRAENKEL: There is a chance that he'll make demands, there's a possibility of some kind of negotiations at this point about the precise shape of the future arrangements, these things can be considered. But, yes, Frank Bainimarama has been a very, very determined man, so determined that he has refused to negotiate. Today he has refused to allow all those parties who were opposed to his coup to participate in discussions, that has to change. I mean, there is no solution as long as you have a military commander who has seized power who refuses to make any concessions, who refuses to talk. He can no longer claim to be doing this within the law as the Attorney-General has constantly been saying and some of the coup supporters have constantly been saying. It's now clear that this is in violation of the constitution. If he wants to go down that very nasty route towards creating some kind of Burma-type situation in the middle of the Pacific, potentially he has the guns to do so, but I think it would be a very, very unwise step.
