PAKISTAN: Al-Qaeda sheltering near Afghan border, US report
Updated
In Pakistan, a new American intelligence report says Al-Qaeda is regrouping in the country's tribal regions. The US report coincides with a string of suicide bomb attacks, including one in the capital Islamabad, and another near the Afghan border. The attacks may be reprisals for last week's storming of Islamabad's Red Mosque by special forces, but they also follow the breakdown of a 10-month-old treaty between Islamist rebels and the government. Jim Walsh is an international security expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the US. He saus the growing influence militant groups like Al Qaeda are having in Pakistan is causing alarm in Washington.
Presenter: Sen Lam
Speakers: International security expert Jim Walsh at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
WALSH: We've seen, over time, remember we're now several years into this, weaker efforts and stronger efforts on the government of Pakistan. I mean Pakistan to its credit has arrested or had arrested a large number of Al-Qaeda or Al-Qaeda linked members, but always the real challenge facing the government of Pakistan, Musharraf in particular was what to do about the frontier region, the tribal regions. He had taken an army, military forces up into that area, a lot of people thought that was a very risky move on his part, this is largely an ungoverned land, and given all his domestic problems the last thing he wanted to do was take on more enemies or another conflict. But he did take an army up there but after a couple of bloody episodes they essentially worked out an agreement and the agreement was we won't pressure you militarily if you cooperate with us, and that agreement seems to have fallen apart and Al-Qaeda has benefited as a result.
LAM: So really President Musharraf's deal with the tribal elders in Waziristan, that hasn't worked?
WALSH: It appears not to have worked and it appears if anything things seem to be worsening. Al-Qaeda has been able to reconstitute itself, part of that is reconstituting the senior leadership in these frontier regions. But part of it is also that they've been able to raise money because of the war in Iraq, and we also see that their tactics are spreading. We're seeing the use in Pakistan, just this week really, of suicide bombers, and that's something we would never have thought of being associated with the conflict in Pakistan as much as you would have thought for Iraq or Afghanistan. So the tactics are spreading, they've reconstituted their leadership and they've been able to raise sums of money to get back in the game.
LAM: And as you mentioned there has been a string of suicide bombings in Pakistan following the storming of the Red Mosque in Islamabad. Is the situation being viewed with alarm by the United States, particularly Washington DC this resurgence of pro-Taliban support?
WALSH: Well I think that's been happening for a while, sometimes the Taliban has been up and sometimes it's been on retreat, particularly after the US "handed off" Afghanistan, if you will, to NATO forces. NATO forces feel like they were left holding the bag. And the Taliban has over the last couple of years begun to reassert itself. In addition to that obviously these tactics of suicide bombings have made them very nervous. So they're always worried about the Taliban but they're more worried now because they worry about Musharraf's future. The US has put all their eggs in one basket and those eggs in this case are in Musharraf's basket, and if Musharraf were to be assassinated or otherwise fall from office then the question would be what is the US going to do now and there is no good answer to that.
LAM: Indeed what is the US going to do regarding Musharraf and the fact that he needs the support of the military intelligence agency, the ISI?
WALSH: Yes - the ISI of course was the intelligence service that originally set-up the Taliban which has had relations of varying kinds with religious extremists, often supporting them in their causes against India and Kashmir, and it's been a tight-wire walk for Musharraf. You remember that he did crack down, but at the end of the day it's the army, it's the military that's the strongest institution in Pakistan, and most suggest that if Musharraf were to die or were to leave office it would be the army that would replace him, and then the real question will be will that replacement be someone who's pro-US or will it be a more junior member of the military and it's thought that the more junior ranks have less strong feelings for the US, and in fact more resentment towards the US.
