NORTH KOREA: Key talks extended in Beijing
Updated
High level talks aimed at firming up North Korea's commitment to declare and wind down its nuclear program will now run into a third day in Beijing. The past week has seen Pyongyang close down its main nuclear reactor and four supplementary sites, under a denuclearisation deal agreed back in February. The reactor's closure was originally scheduled for April, but US negotiator Christopher Hill says even if deadlines are moved, he's confident the talks will achieve their ultimate aim of ending North Korea's ability to make nuclear weapons.
Presenter: Corinne Podger
Speakers: US chief nuclear negotiator Christopher Hill; Peter Beck, North Asia Project Director for the International Crisis Group in Seoul
HILL: We did okay in the first phase, with the understanding that we missed just about every deadline and we don't want to do that anymore. So, I guess we have to be careful about deadlines. But if you don't have deadlines you will never get stuff done. So we have to balance that."
PODGER: This week North Korea began receiving some of the fuel aid it's been promised under the February deal, and Christopher Hill has also said the US is interested in providing humanitarian aid and money to refurbish factories; revitalising an aid program that's been scaled back over the nuclear dispute. To learn more about what lies ahead after this week's talks in Beijing, I spoke to Peter Beck, the North Asia Project Director for the NGO International Crisis Group, who's based in Seoul, and asked him what challenges lie ahead in terms of being able to declare North Korea denuclearised?
BECK: Well the Koreans have an expression, "mountain after mountain", and we've got Yongbyon shut down again for the first time in more than four years, so that's a significant accomplishment. But we've got a number of mountains to climb before we can say that we've denuclearised North Korea. And the first mountain is going to be disabling the facilities because without doing that we'll be right back where we started again in a matter of hours. And the second one is North Korea coming up with a list of remaining facilities and that's not going to be an easy process. So those are going to be the first two mountains that they're going to have to climb before we can really say that we've made any meaningful accomplishments.
PODGER: The IAEA has mentioned inspecting other sites apart from Yongbyon, and the UN also wants to follow up reports of a nuclear enrichment program?
BECK: That's right and the Yongbyon facilities are really in some ways only the tip of the iceberg of the facilities that we know about. But there are other facilities, including at least the equipment or parts for a heavily enriched uranium program. We don't know where it's located and the North has admitted to yet. As well as their bombs that they've made over the last two years that they haven't admitted to. And another almost perhaps even a bigger issue is what is the North going to demand in exchange for giving up Yongbyon and releasing the list?
PODGER: Certainly under the deal hashed out in February North Korea's begun receiving some of the things that it wants in the form of fuel aid. We've also heard Christopher Hill saying the US is looking at restoring humanitarian aid. How important is that assistance to ordinary North Koreans?
BECK: It's very important given the chronic food shortage and energy shortage that the country has. What they've received so far is really just a token gesture, the fuel oil, it's heavy fuel oil, it's not very high quality and even the quantity is not enough to really power North Korea's industry and energy sectors for more than a week or two. So they were receiving 500,000 tons a year under the agreed framework. But the humanitarian assistance is significant because they are still facing hunger and famine in some areas. We don't have precise numbers but that will certainly help people. Unfortunately I'm not sure it's a good idea to tie this humanitarian assistance to good behaviour by the North Korean regime. But invariably they become interwined as they have here.
PODGER: Ultimately too the deal agreed in February would mean diplomatic recognition for North Korea ending its status as a pariah state. Will that also lead to any real improvement in day-to-day conditions for North Koreans?
BECK: Not really, well first it's going to be a very long and difficult process. If we look at the case of Libya, Libya gave up their nuclear program at a much more incipient phase several years ago and they still haven't normalised relations with the United States. So removing them from the list of countries supporting terrorism for example is not going to be easy, and the whole normalisation will take I think much more time than the Bush administration has to achieve. I'll be very, very surprised if they can achieve it. But even if and when they do that's not going to lead to any dramatic changes in North Korea's situation because foreign companies are not going to be rushing in to do business with the North. But it will make it possible for North Korea to receive loans from the World Bank and development organisations. But North Korea's absorption capacity, their ability to accept assistance is actually quite limited. So we have to be careful that we don't just pour money in and watch it all wash away.
