Fiji: Australian invasion "highly unlikely" says analyst
Updated
Claims by Fiji's interim prime minister, Frank Bainimarama, that Australia planned to send military forces to Fiji have been questioned by a defence analyst in New Zealand. Commodore Bainimarama says the Chief of the Australian Defence Forces called and threatened him just days before the December coup last year and that proves that there were plans to send troops to Fiji.
Presenter: Bruce Hill
Speakers: Associate Professor Glyn Harper, Director Centre for Defence Studies Massey University NZ
HARPER: I think it's very unlikely in terms of what the assets that the Australians had available and what would be required of an invasion of Fiji. There's just no way that they are prepared for that. Certainly there was I guess a possibility of what we would call a services assisted evacuation unit to protect nationals there, but the likely of Australia contemplating going into Fiji to sort it out if you like I think was all a very unlikely scenario.
HILL: What would be the difficulties involved in such an operation?
HARPER: Oh, they are horrendous. The Fjian military are highly respected and they would, we expect them to defend their territory. So to carry out something like that you are looking at an amphibious operation which is inherently joint, so you would need naval assets, land assets, air assets, and it would be a big undertaking. What would happen in the past and currently, there is just no possibility that Australia would be contemplating doing that.
HILL: Could Australia, or Australia and New Zealand together have the assets to actually pull this off if they really wanted to?
HARPER: At the moment, well, they've got the assets, but they are probably stretched with some of their commitments around the world in terms of to alliances and of course go Afghanistan and Iraq and peacekeeping missions. New Zealand does and Australia's probably in a better position, but I think that would stretch them and I can't understand why that they would contemplate doing that. Australia has no history of operating unilaterally and invading other countries. I mean and they respect the rule of law, including international law. I just think it's a far fetched possibility.
HILL: How likely is it that Australia and or Australia and New Zealand would actually take the sort of action or what sort of circumstances would have to prevail before they did that?
HARPER: Well, in the immediate future, I can't see any circumstances. However, if the situation in Fiji deteriorated and there were killings I guess and there was appeal through the United Nations, then that's a possibility, but there's nothing like that happening there at the moment and it would need to get far more serious than it is at the moment before they would even contemplate such a thing.
HILL: Wouldn't it be a bit difficult for the Australian and New Zealand militaries to operate against the Fijian military, because they actually train together and they often know each other socially?
HARPER: Eh yes, and they share common doctrine and they've been deployed overseas together. For example, in East Timor there was a Fijian company as part of the New Zealand battalion. Yeah, it would be a very difficult operation. I mean amphibious operations are inherently risky and you just have I guess look at Gallipoli as an example of that and that's the last thing we want is another example of a poorly thought out operation like that. They are very, very difficult to do, particularly projecting power over those off at those long distances. It would be a very tricky, very risky operation, and I don't think either Australia and New Zealand would want that or contemplate it.
HILL: Commodore Bainimarama says that he was actually contacted by the chief of the Australian military, before the coup and he's also pointed to the presence of an Australian war ship with some SAS troops on board just offshore from Fiji while the coup was going on as evidence that Australia had some sort of plans?
HARPER: Mm, I'm certain what was said to Commodore Bainimarama and the fact that there is an Australian war ship that was exercising and may have been there for assistant evacuation. I think that is hard evidence that Australia was contemplating such a thing. And who knows, the commodore may have misunderstood or read something into what the chief of the defence force was saying.
HILL: And if you were going to invade someone, you'd hardly phone them up and tell them you were coming?
HARPER: Eh absolutely not. That's another fact, you wouldn't say that you were coming and give the game away. You would try and preserve security and the element of surprise which after all are principles as war as much as possible. So I think that was a very unlikely and I don't think it is within the foreseeable future likely to happen.
