JAPAN: Daunting task ahead for new PM
Updated
The newly-elected prime minister Yasuo Fukuda has taken over the reins, after his confirmation by parliament's Lower House. The ruling LDP last weekend voted in Mr Fukuda in a much-anticipated ballot. Mr Fukuda, 71, is the son of a former prime minister. He's seen as a safe choice for the LDP, which lost its majority in the upper house in July. Already, Prime Minister Fukuda has warned the LDP risks losing government if his administration does not perform.
Presenter:
Speakers: Sen Lam
LAM: Richard Tanter, does this all have the makings of an interim government do you think? Japan of course does not have to hold general elections until 2009, but already, people are calling for early polls?
TANTER: The most likely outcome is an election in the middle of next year. This is very much a reversion to what was a "business as usual" kind of cabinet. The problem is that the difficulties Mr Fukuda and the LDP face as a whole, is this is not a business as usual situation. It may be an interim cabinet, but it faces quite remarkable difficulties.
LAM: Indeed, what are some of the challenges ahead for him?
TANTER: Well, the first thing is of course that the issue that provoked the downfall of his predecessor, Mr Abe. This was the decision by the Upper House Opposition leader, Mr Ozawa Ichiro, to oppose the extension beyond the end of November of the maritime self-defence forces contingent or a deployment of a contingent of ships for refuelling and other purposes in the Indian Ocean. Mr Abe made this a matter of a commitment to the alliance come what may, and made that commitment very publicly and failed to persuade Mr Ozawa to shift. So Mr Fukuda's first job is somehow either to get Mr Ozawa to change his mind or to persuade the Japanese public that this does not matter after all. That's going to be a very difficult decision and I think that was one of the main reasons why they picked such a conventional character as Mr Fukuda, who is more known for negotiating and trying to talk his way through problems than Mr Abe was.
LAM: Indeed, as you say, Mr Fukuda does face a very hostile Upper House. What options are open to him if Ichiro Ozawa, the Opposition leader, refuses to budge on this issue of the Japanese naval mission. I mean it is quite important for Japan that this mission continues. What else can they do? Would they hold a public referendum, for instance, as you say to put it to the public?
TANTER: No, I think what will happen constitutionally is that Mr Fukuda would have the option if the Upper House continued to refuse to pass the bill, to wait 60 days and then pass the bill through the Lower House alone. That option is with them. However, in the Japanese system, that would be a terrifically brutal way of doing things in public terms and the problem is that because they do not control the Upper House, the LDP will always for the foreseeable future, have to negotiate with Mr Ozawa and the Democratic Party of Japan.
So the last thing they want to do is on an issue which really is not central to their concerns to alienate them completely. They need to negotiate with Mr Fukuda, with Mr Ozawa I should say over much more important issues to Japan, particularly concerning direction of the economy, particularly concerning the budget, which must be passed in the coming months and particularly concerning scandals relating to the pension system. These are crucial to the survival of the LDP in the election next year or the year after conceivably, but probably next year. And I think Mr Fukuda will be looking for ways of persuading Mr Ozawa to find some face-saving option on the MSDF issue.
LAM: Mr Fukuda of course, is seen as far more dovish, compared to his predecessor, Shinzo Abe. He is seen as more of a consensus-builder. Do you think that might also be reflected in foreign policy, particularly in relations with China and South Korea?
TANTER: Certainly, I think that Mr Fukuda has a record of being less hostile to China. He's been there more frequently. On the other hand, recall that the first two months of Mr Abe's prime ministership showed a very welcome shift from the overt hostility that was present under Mr Koizumi, but unfortunately, that then did not continue. So we don't quite know how this will pan out. Remember also that Mr Fukuda has a less dovish side to him in the sense that he several years ago said that Japan may need to reconsider its option to abjure on nuclear weapons. So, it's possibly a matter of style. We don't really know on the substance of the matter yet.
LAM: Do you think Mr Fukuda might also try and address some of the damage that was done in the Upper House polls last July, when they lost power to the Opposition? Do you think he will try and reconnect the LDP somehow to its lost traditional supporters?
TANTER: Mr Fukuda faces two sets of problems in this area. The one is how do you win the election. The second though is a much deeper one that the prevarication in the LDP, it's turning from one leader to another is a sign that the old system in Japan is dead, but a new one has not yet emerged. The election next year promises to be the first time that an Opposition with some teeth might actually tackle the LDP seriously. For the election, Mr Fukuda has already given signs that he is willing to be somewhat populist. He's announced that he will abandon a plan by the Abe administration to shift very substantial costs of the medical system on to patients and away from the government. On the other hand, the question of how that we paid for is being raised by the business community. Mr Fukuda doesn't have too many domestic options as well and I think the importance in negotiating Mr Ozawa.
LAM: Right, we'll have to leave it there Richard. Thank you very much for your time.
TANTER: Bye, bye.
