BURMA: Police fire teargas, warning shots at protestors
Updated
In Burma, international anger is mounting over the military junta's crackdown on anti-government protests today. It's the ninth straight day of protests against the ruling junta, which has imposed a curfew and a ban on public gatherings.
MATHIESON: This is really unchartered territory for Burmese society. These are the biggest events to have hit the country in 20 years and this is the beginning of the end of the SPDC I think, I mean they can't go back to the way things were from here. And if they use violence it will be incredibly difficult to stabilise the country.
MCCARTHY: Some analysts are speculating that military officers are actually reluctant to convey to the junta leader, Tan Shwe, just how big the protests have become and indeed even the extent of the economic hardship that's triggered the unrest. Do you think that the junta's isolation is itself fuelling the crisis?
MATHIESON: It certainly has, I mean the senior SPDC leadership, the senior military leadership has been living in a bubble of denial for several years now, and it is true that they don't understand the poor level of development in the country and just how difficult it is for people to live and to survive in the city and in the countryside. And also they do believe this ideology that they've constructed that the military is the leading institution of the country and the only one equipped to actually lead the country. So this kind of isolation of senior General Tan Shwe, the President of Burma, is contributing to this because his junior officers are probably hesitant to actually tell him the scale and the size and what it means and who's involved in these demonstrations. So certainly their isolation has been a contributing factor, but also their geographic isolation, they've removed themselves to this new capital of Naypyidaw, and that's where all the public servants are. So what happens in Naypyidaw I think in the next few days will also be very interesting, if people there come out onto the streets to show their dissatisfaction with military rule.
MCCARTHY: Despite sanctions from the US and the EU, many Asian countries of course continue to invest in Burma, China being the main one, also India, Thailand and Singapore. As world attention increases on Burma are we likely to see any shift in their trade policies?
MATHIESON: I don't think so, I think that a lot of these countries that invest heavily in Burma do so because they desperately need Burma's raw materials and access to energy. So China and India will be unapologetic about their trade links with Burma, because they're very important to both countries. Thailand as well is intimately connected to the Burmese economy. The other countries of Southeast Asia are a bit different because they're saying that a lot of their investments just haven't worked out very well in the past several years. So again they're waiting to see what kind of political moves happen with Burma. The threat of more US sanctions at this time probably won't do any good I think, depending on what happens with the demonstrations for the rest of this week and how the SPDC comes out of it, targetted sanctions against individual financial savings in Singapore and places like that would be a good idea, but not at this time. I don't think this is the time for calls for punitive action by the international community. It's time for them to encourage elements within the Burmese military to come out and stave off any violent reaction to demonstrations. In a sense to encourage them to make a break with the senior leadership and find a way to negotiate with these demonstrators and with political activists.
MCCARTHY: On that point of international pressure and what effect it will have, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is saying that the US will push for another UN Security Council resolution on Burma, which was of course vetoed by Russia and China earlier this year. What are their chances?
MATHIESON: At the moment if this is done in a hasty fashion I think their chances are very poor. Russia and China made it very clear in January when they vetoed the Security Council resolution that they did not consider Burma to be a threat to international peace and security. And I don't think their minds are going to be changed somehow. What we would call for is concerted action in the Human Rights Council first, to actually get a consensus in the Human Rights Council to say Burma is clearly a threat to its own population, that the military government is a threat to its own population. It is a destabilising factor to its neighbouring countries, but in a sense the gravity of the situation should first I think go through the Human Rights Council and then take that up to the Security Council to say, you know, we have a united stance here in the United Nations that we want peaceful political and economic change in Burma.
Presenter: Joanna McCarthy
Speakers: David Mathieson, Burma consultant for Human Rights Watch
