TAIWAN: President Chen insists on boosting defence
Updated
Taiwan has pledged not to develop nuclear weapons, but insists on its right to boost its defences, to counter potential military aggression from mainland China. Following Opposition claims that the DPP government was quietly developing nuclear warheads, President Chen Shui-bian said Taiwan would not develop, introduce nor use nuclear weapons.
Presenter: Sen Lam
Speakers: Jonathan Pollack US Naval War College, Newport Rhode Island
POLLACK: Well Taiwan actually had a covert nuclear weapons program about 30 years ago which the United States detected and shut down. So it's not a question so much of whether you have the ability to mobilise the technical personnel for it; in theory you could, but that doesn't mean that you would. But obviously these accusations are very, very strong and very, very controversial and again we're not really in a position to judge whether there might be some exploration underway. But it does indicate the heightened sensitivity in Taiwan about their long term situation vis-a-vis the military capabilities of the mainland.
LAM: And what about Taiwan's home developed cruise missile, Hsiung-Feng 2E? What do we know about that?
POLLACK: Well the Hsiung-Feng 2E has been under development for a number of years. It does give Taiwan at least a hypothetical capability to be able to reach targets in the mainland because of its range. And some in Taiwan argue that they must have such a system in order to counterbalance the military capabilities that Beijing can direct against Taiwan, believing therefore that it gives them more of a deterrent capabiility against any kind of coercion or attack from the mainland. So clearly Taiwan is making progress in this area and seems to be placing a lot of importance on the development of that system.
LAM: Indeed President Chen has said that the Hsiung-Feng missile is defensive and tactical in nature, but then at the end of the day is it not down to what the leaders of Taiwan deem necessary or indeed appropriate to caution China against entertaining aggressive thoughts?
POLLACK: Well I think in fact the meaning that attaches to it for the leaders in Taiwan is not really tactical, I think that they conceptualise it much more in strategic terms, believing that it would inhibit any kind of military pressure or attack against them, recognising that the Hsiung-Feng is a system that Taiwan has within its own capabilities. It's not a question of how it would depend upon the United States and so forth under circumstances of acute threat or a crisis. But whether this gives them equivalence with the mainland is very much debated; whether this is in fact the best way for them to proceed. But I do think it reflects that sense of vulnerability and the desire to have some kind of independent means to protect Taiwan's well-being under a variety of future circumstances.
LAM: Well President Chen has given the assurance that Taipei would communicate with the United States before using any weapons at all, let alone nuclear weapons. So does that put the US in a rather awkward situation regardless of the Taiwan Relations Act?
POLLACK: Well I think it does and again the problem is about a lot of this language of assurance. If Taiwan really believes that this is a capability that would really, in a fundamental sense, protect it against possible attack, Taiwan would presumably reserve to itself the right of decision about the circumstances under which it might use it, under which it might inform the United States and so forth. So I think that it's in this elaborate process, there's a lot of area for potential misperception and miscalculation that is potentially very risky, which is one of the reasons why the United States has cautioned Taiwan against preceding down the path of a missile capability directed against the mainland.
