SRI LANKA: Bombing fuels fears civil war may spread
Updated
Two weeks after the Sri Lankan government announced its formal withdrawal from a 2002 ceasefire with the Tamil Tiger rebels, a roadside bomb attack has left 26 civilians dead and wounded dozens more. Analysts say Sri Lanka's civil war, which first erupted in 1983, is now threatening stability across the country.
Presenter: Corinne Podger
Speakers: Jeevan Thiagaraja, Head of the Consortium of Humanitarian Agencies in Colombo
THIAGARAJA: Buttala borders the eastern province; it's an area contiguous to the eastern province. The primary theatre of conflict to date has been the north-east, it's an indication that the violence may not be sort of predicted to remain in a particular geographical location. It seems to be an ongoing process of destabilisation by different parties.
PODGER: Indeed Sri Lanka appears not only to have slid back into civil war, but the violence appears to have intensified. Is that your assessment?
THIAGARAJA: Yeah, we've had a spiraling wave of violence in the last two years which has finally led to the abrogation by one party of the ceasefire agreement. But it also means that officially we enter a very uncertain period from today. Since the ceasefire agreement does not formally exist there are no official monitors, we have absolutely no idea as to what's going to happen next.
PODGER: It seems that both the government and the rebels have been gearing up for an all-out battle in Sri Lanka for some time?
THIAGARAJA: Yeah I would hesitate to put it that way because of course different strategies are used. The government forces are conventional forces and the LTTE aren't necessarily classified as conventional forces. So their strategies are not necessarily that of a fully fledged national armed force, that's not the LTTE. So I think different types of strategies are being used. We did see a push to clear the east by the government in the past and I think that the military leaders have said at the beginning of this year that they have an intention to try to also take control of what are now areas controlled by the LTTE. And they've also indicated a certain timeline; a timeline certainly the intensity has to increase. To that extent yes they are gearing for more sort of heightened level of violence.
PODGER: The government I understand has also promised to fast-track proposals for devolution, which it aims would address the complaints of the Tamil minority while sidelining the rebels. Would that be enough to bring peace to Sri Lanka?
THIAGARAJA: Well peace in the best sense will take us quite a while. In terms of devolution I think that starting with existing legislation, legislature in 1987 that is what are called an amendment to the constitution which is number 13, and they're trying to give full effect to the provisions of that constitutional amendment. Now that was '87, this is now 2008, 11 years on, and the demands and their expectations may have grown since. So I do believe that while it would be useful to implement fully what was decided in 1987, one may have to consider more than that now.
PODGER: This week Sri Lanka's main donor country Japan warned it would review millions of dollars worth of aid if the violence isn't brought under control. Is that going to serve as incentive for the government to consider reviving peace talks, or will the war just play itself out now regardless do you think?
THIAGARAJA: My assumption is that the momentum towards the kind of thing that we're seeing now would not be stopped right now. The momentum is there towards a push, a military push, and I think it would be very difficult to turn the switch off right away.
