THAILAND: PM nominee's legitimacy to rule under scrutiny
Updated
Thailand may be in for another period of instability, as the new government seeks to appoint a controversial figure as the nation's next prime minister. Sixteen months after former leader Thaksin Shinawatra was ousted in a bloodless coup, the People Power Party formed with support from Mr Thaksin's allies is now in charge, and it's nominated the former governor of Bangkok as prime minister. Samak Sundaravej's nomination will be confirmed on Friday, but he's being investigated for corruption, while pro-democracy groups accuse him of instigating the brutal crackdowns of past military regimes.
Presenter: Sen Lam
Speakers: Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok
PONGSUDHIRAK: In the 1970s he led a movement, a backlash against student activists in the mid-1970s and all along he has been seen as a conservative politician from the old guard. But I think this time now he is in the spotlight because Thaksin had a weakness, he was rejected, he did not get along with the establishment, so his choice of Samak is a way of getting along, a way of handling and managing the establishment forces that overthrew him. Samak has a lot of experience, he's been in Thai politics more than three decades, he has been an MP many times, he's been leader of a party, he has been Governor of Bangkok after he stepped down from politics. Now with Thaksin in trouble and in exile he has decided to ask Samak to help.
LAM: Indeed he is I understand still under investigation for alleged corruption during his time as Governor of Bangkok. Will that pose problems for him?
PONGSUDHIRAK: Samak brings some skeletons with him. When he was Governor of Bangkok there were irregular procurements involving fire trucks for example, and these are charges that are still pending. It could result in a conviction and that would mean that he would get a jail sentence, even suspended jail sentence. It would mean that he would have to leave office. So the prospect that if he becomes prime minister these charges are grave, they're serious and they could expel him from office.
LAM: Why would the party present parliament with such a position, because it would be quite destabilising would it not?
PONGSUDHIRAK: PPP, People Power Party that won the election does not have too much of a choice. They need someone who is seasoned, who has a lot of experience and who can stand up to the establishment, Samak fills that role. Other than him they don't have many other choices.
LAM: Surapong Suebwonglee is the man tipped to be the finance minister and in fact that personality too is a controversial choice. Why is that?
PONGSUDHIRAK: Surapong Suebwonglee has had no experience in finance and economics, he is not seen as an expert that we need at this time when Thailand's facing external challenges from the US sub-prime crisis. The economy has been in limbo. So he has been health minister, his training has been in medicine. Him as finance minister strikes many people as odd. It is the case that they don't have many other people to choose from. It's also the case that we could see a rotation, a reshuffle of the cabinet within a few months.
LAM: Indeed the new government does seem to be so starved of talent that they're bringing back personalities from the past, such as the former prime minister, Chavalit Yongchaiyudh. How does this sit with Thai people?
PONGSUDHIRAK: People are divided as many people of course chose PPP but people in Bangkok are generally dissatisfied with the choices of cabinet that we're seeing. Part of the problem is that 110 leading politicians of Thailand were banned when Thai Rak Thai was dissolved in May 2007. So this eliminates, puts aside a whole generation of politicians, so the choices are poor, the fact that Chavalit is back is symptomatic of the frustration of the voters at the old guard who are back. Thaksin has to rely on them for the time being, but later on I suspect that we'll see a lot of rotation and reshuffling within the cabinet.
LAM: Do you see a tumultous period ahead for Thai politics?
PONGSUDHIRAK: We have had now more than two years of crisis and confrontation and it has not been resolved. We need a reconciliation that involves Thaksin's magnanimity and modesty and it involves the acceptance and accommodation from his opponents. We have a new Thailand emerging and the old guard of the old Thailand are unwilling to accept this new Thailand. So we have more unsettling episodes coming up, more instability, volatility, I hope it does not lead to violence but it's not going to be smooth and pleasant unless we have a genuine reconciliation between the past and the future.
