Pakistan coalition under threat
Updated
Pakistan's six-week old coalition government is under threat, after former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif pulled his party out citing the coalition's failure to meet yesterday's deadline to reinstate sixty judges sacked by President Pervez Musharraf.
Presenter: Sen Lam
Speaker: Dr Christopher Snedden, senior lecturer in international relations at Deakin University
SNEDDEN: It's a difficult issue because the leader of the PPP Asif Zardari has some baggage in relation to the judicial system. He has been charged with various things to do with corruption, and he doesn't want those to be in the public eye. But also it seems that he is wishing to defer to President Musharraf a little bit, which is causing problems. Whereas on the other hand Nawaz Sharif, the former prime minister and leader of the PML(N) faction is very keen to restore the judiciary, the pre-November the 3rd judiciary, because he believes that this will actually sideline General Musharraf and in the process give him some satisfaction that the current president will be essentially powerless or even deposed from power.
LAM: Could it be also that the sacked Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry is also himself a controversial character in that he's possible stepped on a few toes as well, including people in the military?
SNEDDEN: Yes it could, that's a very good point, it could be. I think Mr Sharif likes Mr Chaudhry for that reason because he has trod on some toes in the military and Mr Sharif was sidelined by the military. But on the other hand I think that also makes Mr Zardari weary that they may have a man who's free-thinking, who's not going to be totally under their control, which for politicians can sometimes be quite difficult to deal with.
LAM: The PML Nawaz says that for now at least it won't go into opposition, but if it does do you think the PPP might look to Musharraf's allies for support?
SNEDDEN: Yes I think that's possible and it seems that already there's some talks been going on between the PPP at a very low level, PPP an early stage between the PPP and the PMLNQ, the King's party or General Musharraf's party, which General retired Musharraf, which Musharraf has been trying to get reorganised a little bit and regrouping itself after the election defeat.
LAM: But for the moment though both the PML Nawaz and the PPP say they will not act against each other or run against each other in any by-election. So I guess they're keeping the door open as well aren't they?
SNEDDEN: They certainly are keeping the door open and apparently when the PML withdrew there wasn't a lot of acrimony in it. So I think it may be a little bit of posturing, it's also the PML(N) saying look this is a serious issue. They do have this thing called the Murree Declaration in which both the PPP and PML(N) agreed that the judges would be restored within 30 days. Now that 30 days has passed and I think the PML(N) is very keen for that to happen, the PPP is less keen. But if they do fall apart then arguably the big winner would be the PML(N) because it comes out with its credibility intact, whereas the PPP is going to look like it's less than strong, it will have lost the impetus that it gained in terms of its sympathy vote as a result of Benazir's death and it will be looking like it's a little bit of a lackey of General retired Musharraf.
LAM: There was high hope that the alliance might assert civilian rule in a nation that's used to being ruled by the generals. Has that hope been dashed for now do you think?
SNEDDEN: I don't think it's been dashed but it's a little bit of a hurdle that it's had to jump over and it's maybe a hiccup might be a better way of describing it, and I think both parties have now taken a step back for a little while to draw breath and reconsider. But the PML(N) has said we don't want to do anything to empower the military, we want civilian rule to continue, which is their strong card. The PPP I think also probably wants that but I think Asif Zardari who's driving that party to some extent is very wary of the power that the President has, and he's to some extent deferring to him.
LAM: And finally Christopher Snedden the people of Pakistan it would seem also wants the judiciary restored to eventually get rid of the president, the one-time military chief General Musharraf. Is Musharraf's position more secure now?
SNEDDEN: In the short term yes until they resolve these issues and then it's a matter of what happens, do they actually restore this judiciary? There's been talk that they will actually have two judiciaries; they'll have one judiciary that will look at the criminal and civil cases, which would be under Iftikhar Chaudhry, which would not give him a lot of power in terms of constitutional issues because the other judiciary with the current Chief Justice, Dogar would look at those issues. So it remains to be seen, it's again a period of flux in Pakistan, but the people are very keen for democracy to continue as the election showed. I don't think they're so focussed on the judges, although the people will look at the two political parties fiddling while Rome burns and think that this isn't a terribly good thing.
