Philippine government warned on peace with separatists
Updated
The Brussels-based International Crisis Group says the government must jumpstart talks with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, a 12-thousand strong group which has waged a campaign for a separate homeland since the late 1970s.
Presenter: Sen Lam
Speker: Rodger Baker from the leading international intelligence agency STRATFOR
BAKER: Well there are a couple of problems; one is that as they were working out the terms of the deal they ran into some constitutional issues in defining the homeland and in defining the Bangsamoros as somewhat differentiated from the Philippine people themselves. But there's also disputes within the Moro community over who should get what territory. There's been a lot of disputes within the Philippine military as to whether or not there even should be peace accords, and there's been problems inside the MILF itself as to what they can get out of these talks from the government.
LAM: But with the relative goodwill struck over the past year shouldn't the climate be especially conducive to some sort of peace agreement with the MILF?
BAKER: You would think it would be and there have been many signs that a peace agreement should be weeks away or months away at minimum. But there's been a lot of problems in Manila that the Arroyo government has had to deal with, lots of problems with the military, with rumours of coups and potential coups, and that's really kept the Philippine government from putting a lot of attention to the MILF talks.
LAM: Well Malaysia last month said it was pulling out from the International Monitoring Team. Do you think that might nudge the Manila government into action?
BAKER: I think it's going to encourage Manila to move, but realistically speaking the International Monitoring Team, the IMT really didn't do much, it was only a few dozen people sitting down there. So the decision not to engage in conflict really was less about the IMT than about a political decision by the MILF leadership and by Manila.
LAM: And what about on the ground in the southern Philippines, do you think much has been done for local communities? How is the Philippine government doing in the hearts and minds campaign?
BAKER: There's been a little bit going on. The Philippine government has gained a little bit of bonus in that, particularly over in Basilan but that was primarily in the operations against the Abu Sayyaf. We've seen some activity but one of the big problems that the Philippine government really relies on foreign money, foreign aid and assistance to carry out operations in the southern Philippines, and a lot of those countries are either no longer donating money or are concerned about putting money into an area that's still considered very unstable and unsafe.
LAM: But the US is still helping though is it not in the southern Philippines?
BAKER: Yeah the US has been helping in the southern Philippines through the USIP.
LAM: So how did the government do you think persuade the MILF to work with it vis-à-vis the Abu Sayyaf, in tackling the Abu Sayyaf? What was the trade-off there for the MILF?
BAKER: Well I think one of the big trade-offs was that the MILF would then not going to be targeted by the United States. After September 11 the United States went into the Philippines and originally considered the Philippines the second front in the war against terrorism and went straight after the Abu Sayyaf. And the MILF while it's been able to hold its own against the Philippine military, didn't feel confident holding its own against the US military.
LAM: Do you think then that terrorism might become the unifying factor now? Will that spur the government and the MILF to cooperate even more?
BAKER: Well I think it does offer an opportunity for more cooperation, particularly if the MILF is given more control over natural resources or economic activity in the south, then it will be in the MILF's best interests to keep terrorism under control.
