North Korea agrees non-agression pact with ASEAN
Updated
North Korea is expected to sign a non-aggression treaty with its Southeast Asian neighbours next week.
Singapore, the current chair of ASEAN, says North Korea will sign the Treaty of Amity of Cooperation after Asia's main security gathering next week. The TAC, a regional code of conduct which encourages conflict resolution through dialogue, was originally signed by ASEAN members in 1976, but has since been expanded to include nations outside the Southeast Asian grouping.
Presenter: Sen Lam
Speaker: Professor Don Emmerson, director of the Southeast Asia Forum at Stanford University in the United States
LAM: Professor Emmerson the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation is a document which promotes diplomacy in dispute resolution. So how important do you think is North Korea's inclusion?
EMMERSON: Well it seems to me that one could put this in three different contexts; one could talk about the effect on the nuclear issue itself inside North Korea; one could talk about its impact for Asian regionalism and then because I am in the United States obviously I'm concerned about its relevance for US policy. I don't know which one of those you want to take up?
LAM: Well let's go with the US policy for instance, it's in some way do you think it might reduce tension between North Korea and the US given that the US is after all a member of the ARF, the ASEAN Regional Forum?
EMMERSON: I think the answer to that is very little if at all. I mean it's important to remember very briefly the recent history of US-North Korean relations. We have to keep in mind that President Bush basically shut down the negotiating process in 2001 and my own judgement is that if the North Koreans had not exploded an underground nuclear weapon in the year 2006 the agreement that we're now working on would not have come into play in 2007. And actually a fair amount of progress has been made. The North Koreans have issued a list of what they claim are their nuclear programs, the cooling tower in Yongbyon has been destroyed, there's a schedule. I mean I don't want to be overly optimistic but it seems to me what this shows is that insofar as there has been progress on the nuclear issue it is not because of the ASEAN Regional Forum. It is certainly not because of the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, it really has to do with the six-party talks and with the change in US policy.
LAM: Indeed some might even say that it's because of the hard work that Christopher Hill has put into this whole process. But nonetheless though do you think North Korea coming onboard the TAC, that that is a sort of helpful if not logical step forward for North Korea?
EMMERSON: Only in the most marginal way. I think we should remember that the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation is really a set of words on paper that has never been tested. The High Council that the treaty provides for to settle disputes has never been convened. If I may say so for your Australian listeners the reservations that Alexander Downer made before he agreed to the Australian signature on the treaty really amount to virtually a rejection of the treaty. That is to say one of the reservations says that signing the treaty will not bind Australia to any of its provisions with regard to any non-Southeast Asian countries. And yet if North Korea signs there will be a total of 25 signatories, only ten of which are Southeast Asia. So frankly the North Koreans signing the treaty doesn't impress me very much. I think one can explain it in terms of the second dimension that I mentioned; Asian regionalism. Let's remember that the Foreign Minister of Singapore, George Yeo went in May of this year to Pyongyang and basically urged the North Koreans to sign. Why? Because in ASEAN they are worried that the six-party talks could develop into a regional security forum exclusive to North East Asia. And if I may say so the diplomats inside ASEAN suffer from what might be called locomotivitis. What do I mean by that? The desire to remain the locomotive, that ASEAN should always be in the lead of regional security for all of East Asia. And it seems to me that this is an increasingly difficult position to maintain because frankly the people in Southeast Asia really have no understanding of what's going on in North East Asia, they are two different parts of the world.
LAM: But isn't it the case though that North Korea has always had long-standing relations with ASEAN nations like Singapore and Indonesia, so this is a progressive step forward if only as an example of ASEAN's philosophy of constructive engagement?
EMMERSON: Yes but it tells us much more about the success of ASEAN in maintaining its regional profile or if you will its locomotive position than it does about North Korean policy.
LAM: So you think it's just a feel good document that does not have useful or practical mechanisms?
EMMERSON: Well one of the more interesting aspects is this and this has not come up in the discussion in the media at all, signing the TAC is a prerequisite to becoming a member of the East Asia Summit. South Korea is of course already a member of the East Asia Summit and this could open the door for North Korean membership in the East Asia Summit. Now that would be quite an achievement because that's a much smaller group. But frankly these very large organisations, the ARF has 27 members, I mean how can 27 members really effectively manage regional security? The advantage of the six-party talks is that all six of these countries are centrally involved, directly involved in the issue of nuclear North Korea, and so I think at some point ASEAN is going to have to back off a little bit from its desire to remain front and centre on all regional security issues.
