Indian govt faces confidence motion
Updated
India's Congress-led government is fighting for its survival, after its communist allies withdrew their support, over a nuclear agreement with the United States.
Parliament will vote on a motion of no-confidence later tonight, with the result expected to be close. If Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government falls, there will be early elections - possibly by the end of the year.
Presenter: Sen Lam
Speaker: Professor Robin Jeffrey is director of the Research School of Pacific & Asian Studies at the Australian National University
JEFFREY: Yes it looks like it will be four or five either way, some of the stories coming out of Delhi this morning are that the government is counting on abstentions, that certain members of the erstwhile or the proported opposition will choose not to be in the House at the crucial moment and thereby allow the government to survive.
LAM: It's quite an extraordinary situation isn't it? I understand that even MPs who are currently in prison might be let out to vote?
JEFFREY: Well they have been, they were in the House yesterday and observed with apparently with their jailors. The media people were making a great fuss of the MPs who had been let out of prison who come and take part. It's very interesting in the history of parliamentary government, probably nothing happening is unique, nothing is happening here that hasn't happened in British parliamentary history over the last 250 years, but it probably hasn't happened recently in the English speaking parliamentary world.
LAM: Indeed one commentator has described it as the brazen bartering of MPs in the flea market that is Indian politics. But the vote essentially is pitting the ruling Congress against the Hindu nationalist BJP?
JEFFREY: Well to a certain extent but really of course the BJP and the opponents of the government are a strange mixture. The BJP of course is Hindu nationalist religious oriented party of the right. Their allies on this particular vote are the left-wing parties, the 50 or so communists and associates who have been the supporters of the government for the last four years. So they're strange bedfellows on the opposition side today.
LAM: But do you think the BJP might try and capitalise on the government's problems with inflation? Is it in a position to now sort of move in given the government's unpopularity?
JEFFREY: I think many in the BJP would quite like an election now because the government is facing 11-12 per cent inflation, the monsoon is on so there should be a good crop in October but from the point of view from the BJP an election the sooner the better would probably do them a lot of good, except for one thing, the BJP many of its members deep down probably think that this deal with the Americans is a very good deal, and they're opposing it because it happens to suit their particular interests at this moment, their interests in being an outspoken opposition.
LAM: But by and large the motion of no confidence, this debate was brought about by the left-wing parties that were not happy with the government's new chummy relationship with the United States?
JEFFREY: That's right, I mean the left-wing sees the deal with the US as selling out to American imperialism. The right-wing, the BJP see it as being a compromise of India's independence. The other thing to be said is the motion that they're voting on today is a motion of confidence moved by the government, a motion of confidence in the government, and in parliamentary terms that's important because if it's tied as it could be the Speaker would normally be expected to vote with the government, even though the Speaker is a member or has been for most of his life, a member of the Communist Party of India Marxist.
LAM: And Robin Jeffrey, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was dubbed the accidental politician when he was first voted into office and indeed voted to lead the Congress Party. Do you think he might have lost some of that innocence from those early days?
JEFFREY: He still has the reputation I think for being a good and decent man and I don't think even in the vigorous debate yesterday the opposition they were portraying him perhaps as the weak man who was the cat's paw of other interests, but not a bad man in those terms if you like.
LAM: And just very quickly do you think tonight's vote will be very tight given that some of the MPs might be looking at future political realignments if a fresh election were to be called?
JEFFREY: Of course, I mean it will be four or five I suspect either way, maybe as many as a dozen one way or the other. I think the government will probably survive, that would be my hunch, but it all begins at 4.30pm Australian time, 11am Delhi time. So we've got an interesting day ahead and the Indian media will relish this day very much I think.
