Claims migration will undermine greenhouse targets
Updated
Demographers at Melbourne's Monash University say the Rudd Government has little chance of meeting its 2050 greenhouse gas emissions target if immigration remains at current levels.
They argue that population growth is the main driver of emissions but it's being ignored by the Government.
Presenter: Samantha Donovan
Speakers: Bob Birrell, director of the Centre for Population and Urban Research at Monash University
SAMANTHA DONOVAN: Monash University researchers Bob Birrell and Ernest Healy forecast that Australia's population will grow from the current 21 million to 31.6 million by 2050 with almost 10 million of the people making up the net increase being migrants.
As a result, they project that Australia's emissions will have grown from the current 500 million tonnes annually to 800 million tonnes. About four times what the Federal Government is hoping will be achieved by 2050. Yet Dr. Birrell says the Government is ignoring the role population growth plays in increasing emissions.
BOB BIRRELL: It is a puzzle as to why the Rudd Government has made no reference, nor its advisor Professor Garnaut to this factor. I can only deduce from their behaviour that, although they would like to achieve a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, it's a lesser priority than population building policies. And Australian's are simply not being informed of the realities of the situation.
SAMANTHA DONOVAN: Bob Birrell argues that population growth is the main driver of greenhouse gas emissions.
BOB BIRRELL: Every extra million associated with migration will add to economic activity and thus greenhouse emissions, and businesses who are vying for permits will have to pay more because of the competition to get those permits and that means of course passing on costs to consumers or struggling to compete against imports.
SAMANTHA DONOVAN: Dr Birrell says some observers argue that international migration is irrelevant to the global emissions load because it's just a matter of people moving from one country to another, so there's no increase in net emissions. But he dismisses that theory.
BOB BIRRELL: Most of our migrants now are coming from east Asia and the subcontinent of Asia and where their emission levels are about two to four tonnes per head of greenhouse gases. But when they come here and live at our lifestyle they'll be living at an average of around 25 tonnes per head.
SEN LAM: A spokeswoman for Climate Change Minister Penny Wong says population growth is being taken into account in the Treasury modelling which will help the Government provide an indication of a medium-term emissions target range by the end of the year. That modelling will be released in October and will factor in immigration
