Six party nuke talks resume on ASEAN sidelines
Updated
North Korean nuclear disarmament talks are underway; the first such meeting between foreign ministers from Japan, the US, China, Russia and the two Koreas, since the talks began five years ago.
Presenter: Sen Lam
Speaker: Dr Jim Walsh, international security expert at MIT in the United States.
WALSH: Well, it is odd, and normally you would suspect that this might be a case of again, one of the sides in this negotiation almost trying to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Here we are, with tremendous momentum, tremendous progress in the talks, the first ever meeting of foreign ministers. Remember the DPRK in North Korea has repeatedly suggested that a meeting between foreign ministers would be a significant step for them and very much an important instrument for building confidence. So this is a very important deal, and yet its been downplayed, I think in part for two reasons. One, is domestic politics at home in the United States, and second, a concern that things may be now moving a little too fast, that the US has real concerns about verification and it doesn't want the process to move so quickly into some sort of finalised agreement, that the issues of verification gets brushed over on the way.
LAM: Indeed, China on the other hand, has described it as a significant meeting. So is it just North Korea versus the other five parties, or does each nation within the six nation talks have its own agenda?
WALSH: Oh, as has been the case from the very beginning of this dispute. All the countries have their own agendas and sometimes they are overlapping and common and sometimes they are not. So certainly North Korea's agenda includes having the most senior meeting between North Korean and American officials in some years, that is certainly on the Korean agenda. The Chinese and the South Koreans want this process to continue. This will be a victory for China and it would also address their strategic interests. They want a stable North Korea. They don't want the collapsing North Korea, with millions of people migrating across the border, they don't want war on the Korean Peninsula. Both South Korea and China have those interests.
LAM: Surely it would be a victory for the rest of the world as well, to wean North Korea off its nuclear program?
WALSH: Absolutely, and of course that is the US's main objective is non-proliferation concerns. But each of these countries brings a little something different to the table, and the US is more concerned about non-proliferation, than political relationships, so they want to make sure that this agreement is tough enough to pass muster back at home, whereas the Chinese and the South Koreans are probably happy that the political process is going forward and may be a little less concerned about the details on the document, and Japan for its point of view, it's continually concerned about the abductees issue and does not want the US to sort of go off and settle up with North Korea, without considering Japan's position. So they all have a little difference as this North Korean diplomatic process progresses.
LAM: And one of the details that you mentioned is that issue of compliance and so-called verification protocol. What can you tell us about this protocol?
WALSH: Well, I don't have a lot of details about it. I can tell you this, it is only at a preliminary stage and you can measure that simply by looking at the length of the document. All the documents that people have been discussing are very, very brief. My guess is outlines of principles, rather than specific obligations and technical matters, and we know from the bad old days of the super power rivalry in the Cold War, when you had verification agreements between the US and Russia, or even if you look at verification agreements involving the International Atomic Energy Agency and countries around the world. These require technical detailed documents that will require major political commitments as well, and I think we're very, very early in the process.
LAM: Indeed, it took years for the parties to get North Korea to this stage. What could possibly be achieved by a few days on the sidelines of ASEAN? What's the benefit here do you think?
WALSH: Oh I think there is real benefit. One, the benefit of maintaining momentum. This ship is finally turned around and pointing in the right direction and you want to keep the ship moving in the right direction and this meeting and further discussions about verification following North Korea's declaration I think is a very positive thing. Plus when people are talking, they are less likely to engage in fighting. And so from the point of view of misperception or potential conflict on the Korean Peninsula, as long as people are meeting, that's a good thing.
