Pakistan's Musharraf in resignation talks
Updated
Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf reportedly plans to resign rather than face impeachment by parliament.
Presenter: Joanna McCarthy
Speaker: Christine Fair, Pakistan specialist RAND Corporation in Washington DC.
FAIR: Well actually, I had been rather dubious that this impeachment was going to go forward. There were two impediments to the impeachment, one was of course the votes. It wasn't clear that the government had the necessary two thirds majority in both houses. But the biggest wild card in all of this is really the army. The army has no interest in defending Musharraf. But once an impeachment process begins, it will be very difficult to impeach Musharraf without also impeaching the Pakistan army, and its constant intervention in political affairs.
My sense all along would be that the army would put pressure, not necessarily on the civilians, but rather on Musharraf and convince him that it is in the best interest of all parties involved that he resign and I expect that that's going to be the likely resolution of this impasse.
McCARTHY: Well, Nawaz Sharif, from the Ruling Coalition had appeared to be so set on having Musharraf impeached. What do you think has gone on behind the scenes between Asif Ali Zardari from the PPP, and Nawaz Sharif?
FAIR: Well, you know Zardari had really resisted taking any action that would put Musharraf's position into question. He had really opposed and had been obstreperous and obstructionist on withdrawing the justices which was something which Nawaz Sharif had of course wanted.
In some ways this is the best compromise of all, that they can say that we were going to begin the impeachment proceedings. Whether or not they have the votes would become immaterial, especially if it began a process that resulted in Musharraf's resignation, that would obviate all of this. No doubt Musharraf would not resign unless he was able to secure legal immunity. Technically what he did was treason and under the Pakistani constitution, it could be punishable by death. So Musharraf is going to be very keen, without the protection of the army, to secure some package that provides him with immunity from prosecution should he resign.
McCARTHY: And in the immediate term, who will take over from Musharraf in that position of president?
FAIR: The speaker of the senate, Soomro, that's the constitutionally mandated ascesion of power. Whether or not that remains in that configuration of course, that remains to be seen. There's a lot of speculation about Zardari's aspirations. Initially people thought that he wanted to be prime minister. He didn't contest any of the by-elections and now people suspect that he's vying for the position of president.
McCARTHY: President Musharraf of course has been such a strong US ally and there are reports that US diplomats were actually working behind the scenes to ensure he was cut a deal. How would the US State Department be viewing these events right now?
FAIR: Well, I'm sure the State Department is very much as you said active in trying to secure some kind of departure with dignity, and whatever departure of dignity means, it likely involves immunity from prosecution or being held in a position of being tried for treason.
It's really interesting Washington has steadfastly clung to Musharraf, even though it has been obvious for years that Musharraf had actually not meaningfully made progress on the US agenda and their steadfast adherence to Musharraf was very vexing to ordinary Pakistanis who for now several years have viewed him with increasingly contempt and similarly have viewed with contempt Washington's efforts to resuscitate someone that within the Pakistan political system is clearly dead weight. He is of absolute no political consequence.
McCARTHY: And finally Christine Fair, just briefly, Musharraf's future, will be be staying in Pakistan do you think?
FAIR: He probably would prefer a capacious estate in Pakistan next to a golf course. But the security of that arrangement is highly unlikely. He remains a target of al Qaeda, and for folks who follow al Qaeda know, once they set a target, that target remains in place until they are successful. I think there is a lot of speculation about safe houses in Texas, Chicago, Turkey. I think a lot of people suspect that if he resigns, he's going to be finding sanctuary outside of the country.
