Russia and China discuss Georgia at summit
Updated
Later today the eighth summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, or SCO, gets underway in the Tajik capital, Dushanbe.
The SCO consists of Russia, China, and the four central Asian states Takijistan, Uzbekhistan, Kyrgystan and Kazakstan. These will be the first official talks between Moscow and Beijing since Russia's brief war in Georgia this month - and notably, the first since Russia recognised the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia two days ago. Moscow's military action and its decision to recognise the two break-away Georgian regions have outraged leaders in Western Europe, who fear it could mark the start of a new cold war - one in which Russia might move closer to China.
Presenter: Corinne Podger
Speaker: Kirill Nourzhanov, Russia and Central Asia expert, the Australian National University in Canberra
- Listen:
- Windows Media
NOURZHANOV: Well I wouldn't say China always backs the Kremlin, but most certainly Medvedev faces quite an uphill battle at this summit. Russia expects its partners in the SCO to endorse its action in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but I don't think this is going to happen. So in this instance China if it tries to send a signal to Moscow that while it supports Moscow in its global drive to curtail American supremacy, in this particular instance when issues such as separatism and self-determination are concerned China is at variance with the Kremlin.
PODGER: Is there real concern in Beijing over this issue?
NOURZHANOV: I don't think so because from what I saw in the Russian media and the Chinese media, China is pursuing the policy of (inaudible) activities, so it does not criticise Moscow broadly but it sort of says that look, let's draw a line here. You can probably get away with South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but please don't make a pattern out of this. Russia does not have a monopoly to interfere with the former Soviet Union and to declare independence left, right and centre.
PODGER: There is split opinion on how the recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia will go down in Beijing given that there's the issue of Xinjiang in northwest China. How will Beijing balance those two points of view?
NOURZHANOV: Well absolutely so that's a tricky question, I think the best scenario for Medvedev and the best outcome he can hope for is actually silence, that the final communique of this SCO summit ideally would contain no disapprobation to the Russian action. So I'm sure that's what diplomats are going to work overnight about, how to word the communique in such a manner so as to please both Medvedev and the Chinese leadership. But I think it will be a very watered down document, some vague formulas about the need for dialogue and peace without actually endorsing or criticising more broadly the Russian act or for recognising South Ossetia's and Abkhazia's independence.
PODGER: Of course there are four other players in the SCO summit in Dushanbe, the four central Asian states. How are they likely to see what's been going on in Russia and Georgia?
NOURZHANOV: Well again it's a very interesting question and we only too often reduce the SCO just to Russia and China, whereas there are four other players and they do have a distinct position. Well in a nutshell the leaders of Kazakhstan and Kyrgystan are already on record, they've made their position well known. In the first instance they denounced President Saakashvili of Georgia for using brutal force in South Ossetia, but then they went on to say that well Russia perhaps overreacted and well they are not entirely happy with Russia's recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. So once again their position is somewhat closer to that of China rather than Moscow. Again Moscow will have a very difficult time at the summit trying to rustle up support for its actions.
PODGER: Indeed and just briefly Dr Nourzhanov it seems South Ossetia will dominate this meeting, but is Afghanistan expected to be raised as an issue?
NOURZHANOV: Yes but again in many ways it will be an addendum to the crisis in the Caucuses because as we know NATO supplies its troops in Afghanistan using the overland route, which criss-crosses Russia and central Asia. So I don't think there will be a reconsideration of this policy but perhaps Moscow will try to make noise that well. NATO should be very careful about going over the red line and criticising Moscow unless it wants the separation, the severing of this supply line.
