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KRAUSS; Fukuda was expected not to last very long, but the timing is basically because the ruling party faces a important election, probably this coming spring in which if it loses control - and it has a two-thirds majority now with its coalition partner - if it loses control of the Diet of the parliament, then it will have lost control of both houses, since the Opposition Party controls the upper house, since the last July's upper house elections. So the Liberal Democratic Party is panicking. This is not unexpected frankly, because Prime Minister Fukuda's position in the polls have been terrible and have not been increasing no matter what he does. And therefore I think it's very simple, they are replacing an unpopular leader with one they hope will have a better image and be able to led them to even a narrow victory in spring's elections.

FAYLE: Indeed, Mr Fukuda is stepping down, is he not, because he can't get his legislation through the Opposition controlled Upper House. Why will another LDP politician be any more successful?

KRAUSS: I am not sure they will. In fact the likely successor - who is Mr Aso - is actually quite to the right of Mr Fukuda and much more like Mr Fukuda's predecessor, Mr Abe in his views and those did not go over very well. But he does have a much more popular television image, so I think the LDP is gambling that another leader whatever happens will be - and by the way he is going to be even more unpopular with the opposition's party than Mr Fukuda, who at least was a compromise and middle of the road. Mr Aso is not liked at all by the Opposition Party. So I am not sure he's going to be more successful in getting anything through parliament. I think he will be more successful at least initially with his television image. Whether that will be enough to at least keep the LDP in power by the spring elections is uncertain.

The long shot for a successor is a woman, whose name is Koike, who is in fact very popular, very attractive, very smart, a former journalist, broadcaster, who if the LDP decides to really gamble and make her the party leader and prime minister, I think we will see the popularity ratings of the party go up enormously at least initially. But they will probably go with Mr Aso, the former foreign minister and head of the party, secretary-general of the party. So I am not sure that this solution is a solution as much as a short term stopgap, hoping that they can cling to power in the spring election.

FAYLE: Briefly, Taro Aso is being touted as you say as the front runner. Do you think it's his post for the asking?

KRAUSS: Unless there's a party rebellion among the more reformed-oriented types. Mr Aso is not particularly a reformer and he's very right-wing on international issues. So I think there may be an attempt by some younger reformist types who don't either like his right-wing policies or would prefer to take a bigger gamble with Ms Koike. But I'm not sure it's his for the asking, but he's most likely the person to get it.