Two short-range missiles reportedly fired by NKorea
Updated
North Korea watchers are scrambling to interpret the motives of the secretive regime, after it reportedly test-fired two short-range missiles off its western coast. The launches were reported amid continued talks on North Korea's nuclear program, and speculation over the health of the nation's leader. All eyes will be watching to see whether Kim Jong-Il appears later this week to mark the anniversary of the ruling Korean Workers' Party, after reportedly suffering a stroke in August.
Presenter: Liam Cochrane
Speakers: Andrei Lankov, North Korea analyst, Kookmin University, South Korea; Professor Chung Min Lee, dean of the Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University, South Korea
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COCHRANE: North Korea is thought to have fired two missiles from an island army base into the Yellow Sea, which divides China from the Koreas. It's not clear what type of missiles they were, but South Korean intelligence sources told a local newspaper they spotted the North's army preparing to launch short-range anti-ship cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. Ships nearby were reportedly told to stay clear of the area.
While South Korean officials say this action was part of a routine military exercise, the test firing of missiles is often seen by analysts as a diplomatic signal. But the interpretation of that signal can differ. Andrei Lankov is a North Korea analyst at the Kookmin University in South Korea.
He says North Korea is upset that the United States has not removed it from a list of terrorist sponsor states and is playing the military wild card.
LANKOV: The major message is to the Americans - unless you negotiate with us we will be even more threatening, we will react so irrational, so you'd better give us what we demand.
COCHRANE: He described the launch as a "threatening gesture", much like North Korea's threat to restart nuclear facilities, but doubted there would be major developments until the US presidential election next month. However, Professor Chung Min Lee, dean of the Graduate School of International Studies at Yonsei University, see things differently.
LEE: Well I think first and foremost this signals that the military is able to take certain steps. And so despite the rumours of Kim Jong-Il's ill health and the fact that he has not been seen in public since August 16th, the military in North Korea is sending a very strong but very discreet and limited signal that it's alive, that the army is alive, and the army is able to do certain things like signalling South Koreans and the rest of the world.
COCHRANE: Professor Lee says the missile launch could also be a show for a domestic audience.
LEE: They will try to show the North Korean people that despite the 6-party talks and the fact that North Korea is surrounded by so-called 'hostile powers' as they see it, they almost want to give the impression that the army is in control... There are reports that the rice reports have been cut further, within Pyong Yang even, so they are trying to control rumour or, heaven forbid from their perspective, opposition to the Kim Jong-Il regime and the army in particular.
COCHRANE: North Koreans and the rest of the world will be watching with interest to see if Kim Jong-Il makes an appearance on Friday to celebrate the 63rd anniversary of the ruling Korean Worker's Party. North Korean media reported that the reclusive leader went to a soccer match on October 4th, but unusually, the press didn't release any photos or footage of him at the event.
Andrei Lankov from the Kookmin University, says the celebrations in the next few days will be crucial, even though the party's anniversary is not that important as a milestone.
LANKOV: What is important however is whether Kim Jong-Il will take part in this event or not, if he does not it will probably confirm that he is sick.
COCHRANE: 66-year old Kim Jong Il has not been seen in public for two months and is believed to have suffered a stroke, although North Korean officials deny this. Last week, the United States sent its top negotiator, Christopher Hill to try to salvage a six-nation nuclear disarmament deal which faltered over a verification plan for previously undisclosed facilities.
